Cities that have the longest way back from the recession

Joseph Sohm / Visions Of America / Corbis file

Carson City, Nev., has the dubious honor to be the only metropolitan area that is not projected to recover any jobs at all this year.

By Michael B. Sauter, Ashley C. Allen, Charles B. Stockdale, 24/7 Wall St.

The nation continues to be mired in an anemic, jobless recovery. And according to a report commissioned by the United States Conference of Mayors, and prepared by IHS Global Insight, many regions in the country still continue to lose jobs. Of the 363 U.S. metropolitan regions reviewed by IHS, only 61 will fully recover all the jobs that were lost during the recession by the end of this year. The rest will recover far fewer — the average city will only recover roughly 40 percent of jobs lost from peak employment.

24/7 Wall St. examined the nine metropolitan regions that are projected to recover less than 5 percent of the jobs lost during the recession by the end of 2012. These cities, in particular, were hurt by the housing crash, the loss or decline of an industry, and a reduction in government services and jobs.

Many of the cities that will recover the least jobs this year experienced particularly heady housing markets through 2006. As a result, they also had among the worst housing crashes in the country. In Reno-Sparks, Nevada, median home values dropped nearly 40 percent between 2007 and 2010. Five of the nine cities on this list had a major decline in housing, with four markets losing 25 percent of their median home value.

According to the Conference of Mayors’ report, many cities that rely heavily on merchandise exports, such as the automotive-based Flint, have been suffering as manufacturing businesses continue to move overseas. In 2005, nearly 10 percent of the Flint Michigan’s economy was based on exported goods. As of 2009, the number dropped to just 3.2 percent. Over that time, the value of the city’s annual exports dropped by roughly $850 million, or 70 percent of its original value.

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Many cities were also hurt and will continue to be hurt by government cutbacks. While most industries will add jobs this year, the government sector will actually continue to shed them. Because of increasingly austere budgets, IHS projects that 196,000 government jobs will be lost by the end of 2012. For several cities on our list, like Carson City, Nevada, a high percentage of government employees comprise the total workforce. Between June and November of last year alone, Carson City laid off over 600 city workers.

24/7 Wall St. examined the cities in the U.S. Conference of Mayor’s report that were projected to regain the smallest percentage of the jobs lost during the recession by the end of this year. 24/7 Wall St. reviewed additional data collected by IHS and from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure the impact of the recession on the nine cities that are projected to recover the least jobs. A full methodology is here.

These are the cities that have the longest road back from the recession.

5. Flint, Michigan

  • Percentage of jobs recovered: 2.8
  • Q4 2012 jobs: 131,700
  • Pre-recession jobs peak: 151,300
  • Recession jobs trough: 131,100
  • Percentage of jobs lost: 13.3

Flint’s economy, which is primarily based on auto manufacturing, has been suffering for a number of years. In the first quarter of 2007, employment reached its peak with over 151,300 residents employed. By the end of the first quarter of 2012, IHS projects employment to reach a floor, after a loss of over 20,000 positions. Recovery, is seems, will also be slow as only 600 jobs are projected to be recovered by the end of the year, or just 2.8 percent of jobs lost. The value of exports from the region has dropped 81.9 percent since 2005 — one of the largest decreases in the country. This, of course, has had a huge effect on Flint’s economy and population. Poverty rate in the area has risen to 21 percent, one of the worst rates in the country.

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4. Champaign-Urbana, Illinois

  • Percentage of jobs recovered: 2.7
  • Q4 2012 jobs: 105,400
  • Pre-recession jobs peak: 114,200
  • Recession jobs trough: 105,100
  • Percentage of jobs lost: 7.9

Unlike much of the country, unemployment in Champaign-Urbana actually increased from 9.1 percent to 10 percent between June and November of 2011. The region’s employment peaked late, in the third quarter of 2008, when 114,000 residents were employed. By the second quarter of this year, IHS projects the region to lose 7.9 percent of those jobs. Through the rest of the year, the area will regain only 2.7 percent of jobs lost. Many of the jobs lost in the area have been government jobs, especially in the education sector, which were cut due to budget constraints.

3. Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, California

  • Percentage of jobs recovered: 1.9
  • Q4 2012 jobs: 160,500
  • Pre-recession jobs peak: 174,300
  • Recession jobs trough: 160,300
  • Percentage of jobs lost: 8

As of the first quarter of 2012, the Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta metropolitan statistical area is projected to lose 14,000 jobs, or 8 percent of its employment peak of 174,300 person workforce. By the end of this year, just 200 of those positions might be recovered, according to the report. The region has suffered greatly from the housing bust. Its housing market has not yet fully recovered, which has also hurt major industries such as construction.

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2. Reno-Sparks, Nevada

  • Percentage of jobs recovered: 1.6
  • Q4 2012 jobs: 187,600
  • Pre-recession jobs peak: 225,200
  • Recession jobs trough: 187,000
  • Percentage of jobs lost: 16.9

Between 2007 and 2010, the median home value in Reno-Sparks, Nevada declined 37.4 percent, the 13th biggest drop in the country among metro areas. The problems of the recession have plagued states in the southwest, which once had booming housing markets, arguably more than any other part in the country. From the beginning of 2007 to the third quarter of this year, jobs are projected to decline by 38,200, or 16.9 percent of the workforce. And according to the report, only 600 jobs, a mere 1.6 percent, will be recovered by the end of the year.

1. Carson City, Nevada

  • Percentage of jobs recovered: 0
  • Q4 2012 jobs: 28,200
  • Pre-recession jobs peak: 33,300
  • Recession jobs trough: 28,200
  • Percentage of jobs lost: 15.1

Carson City, Nevada has the dubious honor to be the only metropolitan area that is not projected to recover any jobs at all this year. The region has lost thousands of jobs during the recession, and will continue to lose them through the end of 2012. By the end of this year, the region is projected to lose 4,800 jobs from the beginning of 2007, according to the report. It is the only area not to reach a bottom this year so that it could start recovering. Between June and November of last year, the region lost roughly 600 government jobs. Between 2005 and 2009, the metro region’s exports dropped $94 million, or nearly 40 percent.

Click here to read the rest of the list of cities with a long way back.

 

Discuss this post

all big union supporting democrat states!!!! yeah hows that change working out?

  • 6 votes
Reply#2 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:10 AM EST

Nevada is a right to work state with fairly weak union ties.

  • 3 votes
#2.1 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:45 PM EST
Reply

I am totally amazed that union workers, many whom have watched their job evaporate completely, leaving them unemployed, losing homes, cars etc have not yet figured out that the real greed comes in the form of union bosses who continually harangue about how unfair the big business is and how they deserve increasing pieces of the pie. The pie is only so big, and if there is to be money to develop new factories, new jobs, and train workers for newer technology to run these businesses, you can't look at every single dollar as profit. The unions are one of the biggest purveyors of discontent and class warfare and yet it is to the detriment of the very people they claim to represent.

  • 16 votes
Reply#3 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:18 AM EST

Amen Sue. In addition, the company will tell the union they have "X" dollars for salaries and the union would rather have 35,000 jobs at $35 and hour than 40,000 jobs at say $30 an hour. Then they tell the workers its the company that wanted to elimintate 5,000 jobs, while the average worker would want to keep them all working. Many times those lower seniority workers are the kids of the same senior workers in the same job.

  • 10 votes
#3.1 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:01 AM EST

If the union workers could keep the 300 million that the boss thugs give to Obama and the Democrats hey would not need big raises.

  • 5 votes
#3.2 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:01 AM EST

Yowsaaaaa....Riddle me this Foxfreaks Sue and Big ol Ray: So you be sayin that the Big Bad Unions and their Bosses who represent UNDER 12% of the private workforce in the country are responsible Right? And of course since the gubment has laid of over 500,000 workers, then it's the gubment AND the big bad Unions that caused the problems? Right?............Clear thinking conservopusses! I got it now...I,m gonna vote republican!!!!!!!

    #3.3 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:10 PM EST

    Torpedo, yes you have it right the Unions are holding back/hindering this country. With a cost to educate a pupil here in the US at well over $10k a year the Union Teachers and their constant demands for more and more continue to burden the already overburdened taxpayers. My property tax bill alone has increased each and every year over the past 4 years while this economy has tanked and average household incomes have dropped, why because of the Union contract demands put in place and agreed upon buy many democrats to reward for votes. Union teachers are just one example, we saw what they did with the Steel industry, the auto industry and so on and so on. Unions do nothing for the 85% of the folks in this country not in them, except increase the cost of each and every single product, service and tax we purchase or pay for, it really is that simple now and no more of what they did long, long ago.

    • 1 vote
    #3.4 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 7:21 PM EST

    UAW: Much of what you say makes no sense at all. First, your taxes are being increased due to an eroding tax base as property values deteriorate, unemployment causes people to move, unemployment causes less people to pay the taxes that support the government and services.

    Second, I doubt that any teachers in your area are being wildly overpaid. Most teachers earn a lot less than median income. They are also getting less in supplies and are dealing with larger class rooms. All the while, the curriculum is getting more complex and difficult to teach.

    I am not a teacher, but having 5 kids between the age of 22 and 29, I got to see teachers do a magnificent job teaching them. I also know that none of the teachers were getting rich at their profession. I simply do not understand the lack of respect for educators and education that seems to be raising its ugly head in this country today. At this time we are paying very little for the education our kids receive. It is expensive to teach our population, but it is a worthwhile investment in our future.

    Back to the article, I notice that the areas described have always been volatile employment spots--tourism, gambling, rust-belt industries--that get hit first and hardest and come back much later. The cities described do not surprise me at all.

    • 2 votes
    #3.5 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:03 PM EST

    Unions are not perfect because they are made up of imperfect people, as we all are. But the anti-union garbage that I hear people spewing is plain silly, and I would dare say, downright dangerous. Know your history.

      #3.6 - Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:28 AM EST
      Reply

      I don't know what article you people read. At no point was there a mention that Unions, Senator Reid or the President caused this to happen. Perhaps you should read a bit of history and understand that when President Obama (the racist idiot who continues to disrespect this president and call him out of his name), took office, the housing situation and the unemployment numbers were worse than they were originally given. Every plan to try to correct the situation has been stalled by the ignorance of the GOP who want the President to fail rather than see the country recover. People who try to place blame everywhere except where it should be placed are either uninformed or read into things what they wish. Unions were designed to protect workers in the work place and make certain they have a fair salary for the work they do. GOP governors have continued to make them the cause of all that is going wrong, while many of them, including Romney, laid off workers in private sector jobs so they could rake in millions for themselves. Government workers (mainly Education) have been laid off because no one wants to tax those who are millionaires.

      Get your facts straight and work on trying to tell the truth as opposed to re-quoting talking points of the clowns running for office!

      • 4 votes
      Reply#4 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:53 AM EST

      Velma I think you and I are the only ones on this page who have read newspapers and books. A lot of these posters are nothing more than FOX viewers who rarely get the truth and wind up watching the world go by blaming unions, union bosses, Harry Reid, and anyone who does read and is not lead along by the nose like these folks are.

      • 4 votes
      #4.1 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:32 AM EST

      Things started falling apart during the last 2 years of the Bush administration and continued into the Obama administration, and lets not forget who controlled both houses of congress during that period. We kicked the Republicans out of congress in 2006 and replaced them with an even worse set of thieves.

      • 1 vote
      #4.2 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 12:57 PM EST

      Steve 2 wars were started on the credit card, we gave away drugs on medicare on the credit card or withouit having it paid for, and we allowed the SEC to do nothing while wall street made billions on subprime mortgage securities that no one understood any more especially the SEC and the rating agencies. To stay things were falling apart the last 2 years of the Bush administration is not being very well informed and if I'm not mistaken your Replidummies were in charge. and blew through 4 straight years of surpluses under Clinton. Then Bush gave it all away instead of paying back the deficits with the Bush tax cuts that never lived up to what they were supposed to do.

      • 2 votes
      #4.3 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 3:05 PM EST
      Reply

      These areas mentioned in the article are in areas with not a very divergent economic base.

      Look at New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle--within their metropolitan areas is a huge, very diverse economic base that results in these cities being a lot less prone to recessions. Indeed, the San Francisco metro area has hugely benefited from the success of both the tech industry (e.g., Apple, Facebook, Google, Intel, and so on) and the biotech industry.

      Yes, things could be better, but its that very diversity that will be the engine of a real economic recovery over the next few years.

      • 3 votes
      Reply#5 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:57 AM EST

      These areas mentioned in the article are in areas with not a very divergent economic base.

      Look at New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle--within their metropolitan areas is a huge, very diverse economic base that results in these cities being a lot less prone to recessions. Indeed, the San Francisco metro area has hugely benefited from the success of both the tech industry (e.g., Apple, Facebook, Google, Intel, and so on) and the biotech industry.

      Yes, things could be better, but its that very diversity that will be the engine of a real economic recovery over the next few years.

      Ray, you are correct. N. NV where both Reno and Carson are is redder then red, Obama barely squeaked through in '08 and I doubt he will repeat in '12. So this has nothing to do with knee-jerk Democrat/Unions ruining this part of the state. Let me explain what happened here in the first half of the last decade. Many, many Californians moved here and to avoid capital gains tax bought multiple homes in counties like Lyon (just east of Carson), as the bubble grew these homes gained more and more equity and were being flipped, in turn many more people moved here in order to make a quick buck which caused unsustainable growth. Lyon county has no real industry and for a time the only industry they had was construction as the bubble grew and grew. Lyon county was the bedroom community for Carson workers. Reno suffered from the same thing as well as seeing its main industry (gambling) siphoned by competing casinos with the rise of reservation casinos in CA. So many of these jobs in this study will never come back because they were construction jobs. Unfortunately many of us bought during the bubble because we were afraid we'd never be able to afford anything decent as builders were raising their prices as fast as $30,000/month in some cases. So once the bubble burst all of a sudden we had a huge influx of construction workers that needed to either move or learn new skills. Unfortunately many of them are stuck as part of the benefits of their jobs allowed them to purchase a home at a lower price, but still not as low as the houses are going for now, so they are stuck. Really the only thing that will be able to save this part of the state is an entirely new industry coming in and providing massive employment, which I don't see happening.

      • 2 votes
      #5.1 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 6:27 PM EST
      Reply

      God Bless America!

      • 2 votes
      Reply#6 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 11:02 AM EST

      Let's see -- Michigan, California, Illinois, Nevada ... I think I see the trend here.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#7 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 6:10 PM EST

      Democrat strongholds

      • 1 vote
      #7.1 - Tue Jan 24, 2012 2:11 AM EST

      Lets call them Demasquats as they number 2 on the 99%

        #7.2 - Tue Jan 24, 2012 2:13 AM EST
        Reply

        Were at a point in time where nobody really focuses on the jobless cities anymore. The problem is the Election year blow- off. Obama will try his best at saying recovery is happening. While the Republicans will try and show it is not. I think for the most part recovery has been sporadic at best and only happening in some areas of the Country. Whatever job creation is happening is private sector and not the result of anything Congress or the President has done. He will obviously tout the tax extension started in the Bush administration which by the way was only extended until February? Do I think Obama has helped the jobs picture? No.

        • 4 votes
        Reply#8 - Mon Jan 23, 2012 8:00 PM EST

        5, 4, and 3 are super Progressive cities, pro union, etc.

        Get are getting what they voted for

        • 1 vote
        Reply#9 - Tue Jan 24, 2012 2:10 AM EST

        I am amazed at the number of posters here that have no idea what unions do. Unions generally keep corporations from paying less than fair value for labor and provide fairness and security for their members. Since the attack on unions came up to full speed with the Reagan Administration, union membership has declined steadily through organized attacks by well-funded, subversive entities like the US Chamber of Commerce and the local COCs. As the unions have declined, so has the standard of living for working Americans. This is coincidental with the corporations reaping outrageous profits. Coincidence? There was no middle class until there was union representation for the working class and once unions are gone there will be no middle class. The GOP and thier propoganda machine are counting on it! I am not a union member, but I certainly wish I was.

          Reply#10 - Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:33 AM EST

          Need to do better research MSNBC...Champaign-Urbana's unemployment rate is 7.8%

            Reply#11 - Fri Jan 27, 2012 1:02 PM EST
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