Low, high-end sales boom while mid-level retailers founder

Andrew Burton / Reuters

Christmas decorations light up the outside of Macy's department store in Herald Square, Higher-end retailers, such as Macy's, did well this holiday season, as did the deep discounters. It was the middle that suffered.

Luxury brands and stores known for rock-bottom prices don't usually have much in common, but these polar opposites both enjoyed what many mass-market retailers missed during the holidays: positive sales figures.

Analysts say consumers are still shopping with recessionary mindsets and hunting for the cheapest prices on basic goods. While they'll pay more for unique products they deem splurge-worthy, three years of cautious spending have made them choosier about what they buy. This year, shoppers told once-sterling brand names like Sears and Gap, "We're just not that into you."

Earnings at upscale department stores including Nordstrom, Macy's and Saks all beat analysts' estimates. Affluent consumers, who pulled back when the stock market took a dive, are feeling more confident today, said Alison Jatlow Levy, a retail strategist at consulting firm Kurt Salmon. Luxury retailers also sharply pared their inventories in response, and they've retained those lower levels. Customers today are more willing to pay full price because goods are likely to sell out before they have to be discounted. 

On the other side of the spectrum, the parent company of discount chains T.J. Maxx and Marshall's beat estimates, as did Ross Stores. Warehouse club Costco Wholesale had a 7 percent increase — slightly below expectations but still healthy. (Wal-Mart, retail's 800-pound gorilla, doesn't release monthly sales figures.) Even dollar stores are looking forward to 2012. Dollar General announced this week it plans to open 625 new stores this year and relocate or renovate another 550. 

The middle of the road didn't fare as well. These bigger companies can't rely on scarcity to keep prices high the way luxury brands can. When the recession froze spending, they slashed prices to compete with discount chains as their customers traded down. The economy has improved somewhat, but shoppers still have a siege mentality. 

"While the economy shows mild signs of recovery, consumers haven't changed their behavior," Levy said. "The mindset of the middle market customer has markedly shifted" to focus more on value, she said. 

These stores have a challenge getting shoppers to trade back up, said Samantha Panella, vice president of softline retail at Raymond James Financial. "People will shop where they can get the lowest prices. In the middle, you really need to differentiate to get the customer through the door," she said.

 J.C. Penney and Kohl's both slugged it out with deep discounts, but both only ended the season bruised. Each lowered its earnings outlook after missing expectations. Sears Holdings didn't even wait until the new year to announce it would close up to 100 Sears and Kmart stores due to dismal holiday sales, in spite of huge markdowns. 

Deep discounts are a vicious cycle for stores, Levy said. They may drive sales, but it comes at the expense of profits. It also teaches shoppers that if they just hold out, they won't have to pay full price for anything. 

Gap Inc., once the standard-bearer for mass-market apparel, capped off a bad year with a 4 percent drop in same-store sales. "Gap stands out as a laggard for most of this year," Panella said. Shoppers just aren't excited by what's on the racks, and the "basics" — jeans, t-shirts, chinos — aren't distinctive enough in consumers' minds to merit the price premium. Gap's ubiquity, once an asset, is now a hindrance. "They have a lot of stores, and that's a challenge," she said. 

Mid-tier retailers also are having a tough time because vying for a big chunk of the population means stocking clothes everybody wants to wear, Levy said. "You want to be everything to everybody. What happens when you're in that kind of position is overassorting — a lot of styles, a lot of inventory." The invariable duds have to be deeply discounted before consumers will bite, which compounds the problem. "It's almost like the retailers were nervous to take a bet on what the big styles would be," she said. 

Discuss this post

"while mid-level retailers founder" doesn't make sense. Better check your dictionary. Should be "flounder" not "founder".

  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 8:24 AM EST

foun·der

2    [foun-der] Show IPA

verb (used without object)
1.
(of a ship, boat, etc.) to fill with water and sink.

2.
to fall or sink down, as buildings, ground, etc.: Built on aformer lake bed, the building has foundered nearly ten feet.

3.
to become wrecked; fail utterly: The project foundered because public support was lacking.

4.
to stumble, break down, or go lame, as a horse: His mountfoundered on the rocky path.

5.
to become ill from overeating.

EXPAND
verb (used with object)
7.
to cause to fill with water and sink: Rough seas hadfoundered the ship in mid-ocean.

8.
Veterinary Pathology . to cause (a horse) to break down, golame

Hmmm... seems right to me, based on the dictionary.

  • 2 votes
#1.1 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 11:17 AM EST

Nice Jose! lol

    #1.2 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 2:05 PM EST

    Isn't "Flounder" that guy in Animal House?

    "I'd like 50,000 marbles, please."

      #1.3 - Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:50 PM EST
      Reply

      Big surprise. the middle class is vanishing under the haze of the 1% corporate greed.

      • 1 vote
      Reply#2 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 9:24 AM EST

      Gap's problem isn't that it's ubiquitous, it's that their product quality has gone downhill.

        Reply#3 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 9:24 AM EST

        History is already proving that the auto bail out was the right thing to do. Just look at the data.

          Reply#4 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 9:41 AM EST

          TO BAD FOR THE BOTTOM LINE AND PROFITS !!! What shopper cares about that if at ALL !!!

          I do not see people buying because PROFITS are on their MINDS!@#$%^&*()_+.

          TIME FOR CORPORATE AMERICA to go through DEFLATION. If they do not like it then CUT THE FAT FROM THE BIG WIGS AT THE TOP !!! GET IT NOW ! don't sponge more from the CONSUMERS !!!

          Because that can only go so far.

            Reply#5 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 12:54 PM EST

            The banks and the federal government created and now sustain the mess that has obviously fallen squarely on the backs of the middle class who don’t have the time, or means to manipulate the system. Many at the bottom make their living off all of us with little or no effort at all; while, the top complains that they shouldn’t be made to carry the “lions” share of the burden. Speaking for myself, my damned back hurts!

              Reply#6 - Mon Jan 9, 2012 1:42 PM EST

              All of these clothing stores be dammed! They all sell the same dammed awful clothes! The fit is unflattering, even to those who are young bodied. The fabrics are uncomfortable on the skin, and there are no pretty colors.

              The same damnation on the rest of the inventory, as well. There is just so much worthless junk for sale out there, from clothes to household goods, to childrens toys. Enough! So much of it quickly becomes landfill.

              As for the words "flounder" and " founder"--there is a reference to behaving like a flounder, where there is a lot of flopping around, just as the fish does. Maybe that is the confusion.

              Founder or flounder, I don't care. It makes me all the more aware of how living with less can actually be better. Americans are drowning in excess stuff. We have reality base TV shows about dealing with excess material possessions and excess food.

              Maybe there is just too much retailing going on for any retailer to get a big enough piece of the pie.

                Reply#7 - Tue Jan 10, 2012 6:23 AM EST
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