
Buckle your seatbelts. That's the message analysts have for investors in 2012.
Although the S&P 500 is on pace to wrap up this year more or less flat, the stock market gyrated wildly over the last 12 months. The good news is that experts say we're likely to finish 2012 with stocks in positive territory. Getting there could be a bumpy ride.
"Flat years are very unusual and the history of the year after the flat years is actually very positive," said said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst for John Thomas Financial.
"I see the markets higher by about 10 percent in 2012," said Gary Harloff, owner of Harloff Capital Management.
Tim Speiss, chairman of the personal wealth advisor practice at EisnerAmper LLP, also predicted a positive 2012. "Let's say when we open for business on Tuesday, the Dow is at 12,200," he said. "I think you could see that climb up to something close to 13,000."
But this optimism for a modest increase is tempered by another shared sentiment: Getting there isn't necessarily going to be pretty.
In the near term, there's European sovereign debt to worry about, Speiss said. "The European Union financials are going to be the most troublesome areas for investors." Intervention by the European Central Bank is a good sign, he said, but they're playing catch-up trying to contain the mess. "They're in the midst right now of something they should have done a year ago," he said.
Speiss added that the market could turn negative at least temporarily if the Iranian regime follows through on its threat to disrupt oil shipments by closing the Strait of Hormuz. "[This] could be in the near term a significant issue" if investors lose confidence and if oil prices gyrate or spike higher, he said. "Most oil analysts are looking at oil prices around $105 to $110," Kaufman said. "If it goes much higher than that, it's not a great thing."
"I've been focusing on February of this coming year as being an important time," Kaufman said, because for the last three quarters, investors have snapped up stocks during earnings seasons. The next one happens in mid-January. But they tend to get buyer's remorse and dump the stocks shortly afterwards. Especially if companies lower their forecasts, Kaufman added, "Then you're going to see a pre-spring correction."
In the second half of the year, investors will have to steel themselves for what's virtually guaranteed to be an ugly battle for the White House and Congress. "I think that may take investors' eyes off of the stock market," Kaufman said.
"The administration will probably enjoy a decrease in unemployment rates, which from a political perspective could play to their advantage," Speiss said. He predicted the number of jobless Americans could drop from 8.6 percent as of November to as low as 8.3 percent by the summer — still high, but an improvement.
Gary Harloff also said improvements in employment should be evident in the third quarter as more companies become confident enough to start hiring. "It's starting, but it's not noticeable yet," he said.
If President Obama is voted out of office in November, though, Speiss said bank stocks could benefit. "If the Republicans are elected it could very well be that you'll see a more bank friendly environment," he said. If a new administration relaxes restrictions and capital requirements, "(t)hat could be very positive outcome for the financial services sector."
Kaufman said the election of a new president perceived to be more business-friendly than President Obama could boost investor optimism. If that happens, "I think you'll see an amazing fourth quarter rally," he said.
All of these factors will contribute the kind of volatility that marked this year's trading. One culprit is the proliferation of automated and high-frequency trading, Kaufman said. With machines rather than people responding to triggers in nanoseconds, even small movements can snowball rapidly.
Political and economic events also play a role, though, and 2012 will have more than its fair share. "I do think it's going to be a continuation of the type of volatility we've seen this year," Kaufman said. This year, there were 74 trading days during which 90 percent of stocks moved in the same direction, an all-time high. "It's like every few days we have one of these very lopsided days that used to be very rare occurrences," he said.
Related stories:
Economists see growth picking up in new year
What worries us most: Economic collapse
Predicting the markets and sharing advice for long term investors, with Andrew Goldberg, JPMorgan Funds market strategist weighs in.


It's difficult to decide, if they are trying to jawbone the economy up, or help Obama, out.
April of 2000, when I saw that we were going to elect a quasi socialist to the white house, either Clinton or Obama, I cashed everything out and bought gold, it can't be taxed until it's sold, there it stays, until Obama is an esoteric historical footnote.
There will be no uptick in the economy of note.
No owner or operator of a business will invest any significant amount of money in expansion, equipment or people as long as we have an anti business administration in office.
Obama has demonstrated over and over again, he is anti business and considers business good only, to fund his social vote buying programs and his green fantasies.
Business will continue to repay their debt and buy their own stock until the administration changes.
The bust of the housing mania and the subsequent financial meltdown creating the Great Recession has not been able to run its course due to government and Federal Reserve interference. Unable to restructure and reallocate mal-investment caused by external forces, the economy will stagnate for at least another 7 years. After the '29 Crash, interference from both government and the Federal Reserve prolonged the depression well into the late 30s and even into 1941.
The government and Madison Avenue spin doctors had been announcing recovery, market correction, soft landing, jobless recovery, 'Green shoots,' and even the official end of the Great Recession in 2009. Lies and propaganda do not make a recovery.
There will be no recovery for 2012.
The problem with this idea is that helping business doesn't grow the economy. Business is inherently against innovation and competition. Once you have a monopoly or duopoly, you really don't want to upset things too much. That is why business is anti-socialist, because a social safety net supports entrepreneurs and empowers them to take the risks to succeed. However, for the good of the economy and the country, it is better to have disruptive technologies and ideas that allow us improvement in the way of doing business - something that is anathema to current business, but the only way for us to move forward.
The gig is over, America is PHUCKED!
Rennie Carljure banned, rereg of multiple accounter valspully. Multiple tordfiss also banned.
Bryon Raum:
Generally, in a market economy the business world is highly competitive. New products, materials, and ideas are constantly improved and invented to gain additional market share or protect existing ones. While it is true a monoply likes the status quo for obvious reasons, even monoply must be wary of challengers offering substitutes or better technology.
Business is no different than the human experience. Just as every new generation learns to adapt to new technology and new ways of doing things, so too business. Business that failed to adapt or fear change will die off like dinoseurs. Indeed, since the start of the Industrial Revolution, America has seen many once successful business vanished because they failed to adapt and evolve.
While everyone agrees that a social safety net is important for social stability, not everyone agrees on how comprehensive that safety net shall be. An extensive safety net, which will be also an expensive one, will discourage some people from engaging in productive work because some people will have no incentive in working for a living while some workers see no logic in working long hours to pay for an expensive social safety net that mainly benefit non-workers.
Better for who?
It's been great for the rich and will probably continue to be so for awhile because our political leadership are sticking to the same economic ideology that caused the collapse and recession: Neo-liberalism (also called "Free-Market" economics)
As for everyone else I think things will continue to go up and down but the general trend will be downward-and there could be another big crash for the middle class and poor...for the same reason.
Most of the general public doesn't know it (because the people who own and run the country don't want them to know it) but the kind of economy we have was changed in the mid-late 1970's.
It was capitalism before that time and it was capitalism after but before the 1970's the dominant economic ideology among the people directing our country (and the industrialized countries, generally) was demand-side, Keynesian Capitalism (named after the economist, John Maynard Keynes).
After the 1970's, increasing dominant was the supply-side, Neo-Liberal economic ideas pushed by people like Milton Friedman.
Now both liberals and conservatives are mostly economic "Neo-liberals" (Free-market economics).
That includes: Obama, Bush, Clinton (who deregulated finance and signed NAFTA) and Reagan and even Carter who was the first President to embrace it. They are all Neo-libeals.
Some of the basic differences:
Demand-Side (Keynesian): Regulation of finance and business generally, robust public sector, putting money in many peoples hands by: High taxes on wealthy, encouraging the raising of working people's wages and benefits (Pro unionization), strong social programs like Medicare and Social Security, low interest rates and tolerance for inflation, etc.
Supply-side (Neo-liberal): Deregulation, cutting taxes on business and the wealthy, privatization, lowering wages and benefits for working people (Anti-union), no tolerance for inflation, high interest rates, etc.
NOTE **Don't misunderstand Neo-liberal because it has the word "liberal" in it. It means liberalization of capital not cultural or political liberalism. It was conservative economics embraced by politicians like Ronald Reagan**
Neo-liberal economics is basically the same thing as Laissez Faire economics that was dominant among U.S. policy makers in the 1920's and what I call old fashioned Rape and Pillage capitalism.
Just like in the 1920s with Laissez Faire the basic effect of Neo-liberal economics is to transfer wealth from the middle class and poor to the super rich and then the economy crashes and/or is very unstable because most people don't have enough money to keep the economy running at a healthy clip.
It's like a poker game, when one of the players gets all of the chips the game is over, or in the case of an economy, it crashes or spirals down.
The last time this happened with the stock market crash in '29 and the resulting Great Depression in the 1930's policy makers pretty radically changed direction (This was back in the days when people actually learned from their mistakes). Besides that Socialism and Communism were much stronger in the world and the rich and powerful were afraid that if they didn't change things and make a system which provided a relatively good standard of living for the general public they would face a real revolution and lose ALL of their wealth and maybe their life, too.
But now Socialism and Communism are much weaker so there is no alternative or outside threat like that and for other reasons, too, the people who own and run things are basically keeping to their discredited ideology (for the second time!) even though I'm sure that the smarter and more honest among them know that things will get much worse for most of the people.
We are headed for Banana Republic type social conditions.
The elites are also betting that the technology of security (Police, "crowd" control, guns, surveillance technology, military, etc) will keep them safe even when huge numbers of people realize whats going on.
So Happy New Year and I hope I see you at the next Occupy demonstration or action.
Another note to my post above:
While neo liberal (free market) economics were originally embraced and pushed by people like Ronald Reagan now most political liberals are economic Neo-liberals, too.
So, Reagan, Bush Sr., Clinton (who signed NAFTA and financial deregulation), Bush Jr. and Obama were and are all Free-market, Neo-liberals. (don't be fooled by Democrat's public rhetoric especially during election years).
WOW Rennie, I am seriously impressed that in 2000 you saw that Barack Obama was going to be elected in 2008. I'd really love to know how you did that.
And, it must just bug the p*ss out of you that the economy continues to improve (albeit slowly) while the price of gold trends downward.
BTW Rennie, when I saw the collapse that was coming due to the failed Bush economic policies I moved many of my marginal stock investments into cash. As the market started to improve in 2009, under your "socialist" president I put my money back into the market. While I'll admit it has been a bumpy ride I'm up over 250%, and it's also tax free until I sell it.
Counterpoint?
"bumpy ride" indeed, for working people:
For-profit company hosts sham “job fair” in Detroit area
By Sheila Brehm
31 December 2011
A job fair held December 29 attracted hundreds of people seeking work from the Detroit Metro area. The occasion, dubbed “New Year, New Job” and sponsored by JobFairGiant.com, was promoted as a career opportunity for the region’s substantial jobless population, but actually offered very few positions.
The event provided a snapshot of the plight of the unemployed, who not only face the highest levels of joblessness since the Great Depression, but the decimation of any social infrastructure to help them. The event was held at a hotel in Southfield, near Detroit, where unemployment unofficially stands at 50 percent.
Despite its appearance, JobFairGiant.com, the event’s sponsor, is not a public service organization but is a small for-profit operation run by Caree Eason, a Detroit entrepreneur. Eason’s company holds regular job fairs in the Detroit Metro area and sets up speaking engagements.
The firm sells services to the unemployed, in part through promoting the notion that people are unemployed because they lack proper job-hunting skills. For a fee, Eason sells resume assistance and repair, posts jobs on her web site, runs a radio advice show where, as “Dear Job Doctor,” she gives advice to the unemployed.
Historically, job services and retraining were provided as a public service by the State of Michigan as well as the federal government. In 2007, however, the state permanently shuttered its nine branch offices, axing more than 8,500 workers. Contact with Michigan’s Unemployment Insurance Agency is now limited to the Internet and telephone. Jobseekers essentially have been left to their own devices…
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/dec2011/jobs-d31.shtml
They have been saying the same thing since 2007.
Mike - you can easily tell from the "Obama or Clinton" comment that 2000 was a typo, - Rennie meant 2008
As long as we have spend-a-holic buffoons in Washington...get used to it. Stock up on Dramamine (motion sickness pills.)
If the "analysts" look anything like the guy with the red 2012 glasses in the photo, I'd guess they might be lacking somewhat in credibility. Come to think of it...........most of these "market analysts" are just guessing anyway.
The financial 'markets' are all one big Ponzi scheme. The beneficiaries are the Global Banks, massive corporations and hand-picked politicians who push the party line for the benefits of the banks, etc. Anyone without a very deep pocket should stay away from Wall Street, it is set up to bring in and fleece little fish. The playing field is far from level and only the filthy rich, men like Soros and the Koch Brothers and other billionaires profit. Note how they get to play a special kind of stock market.
Then there are the insider traders, aka: Congress. How convenient that they get to write the laws and have insider information that allows them to win really big once the legislation is in place. We have corrupt crony capitalism and have had for generations.
Think not? Take a good hard look at the laws and note who gets the gelt, sure ain't the little guys or small business. Want to start a 'green company?' Helps to have Obama hand you half a trillion or two, too bad you had to go bancrupt after all that easy taxpayer monies hit your pockets. Obama is merely the continuation of of a long line of 'progressives' and, yes, Bush was a progressive dressed in republican garb. Obama and Clinton and Carter wore democrat suits, look at how well things are going under 'progressivism.' Actually, they're going great for fat cats and fat cat politicians, the rest of us? Well...
What a joke. Everyone knows that Iran can not possibly close the Strait of Hormuz even for a day. USA would take out any missle sites, speed boats, etc in 24 hours or less. Can you spell 'Blitz'? Only a buffon would make a statement that Iran has some possible way of rattling their sabers and following through. Total hogwash.
OOOOOOOH. I'm soooo afraid of IRAN. NOT.
Bring it on, the USA will DesertStorm you.
I actually wish Iran would do something stupid. Let's get it over with once and for all, KABOOM!
WOW REALLY STOCK BROKERS THINK YOU SHOULD BUY STOCK? WHAT A HEADLINE! They are almost always wrong, just read the headlines from 2008 and these same people talking about a great year for the market, and especially financial stocks (remember: AIG, BearStearns, Leaman Bros., and almost every bank). They cant admit that with out a falling prime lending rate and mad printing of money the market is dead. Use your heads people, will the market grow with Europe, China, and Japan melting down? Will the market grow if Iran shuts the straights of Hormuz? Now if Bernake does QE3 it will probably drive up the market temporarily, but most people know this so good luck out timing the market.
Market will go up ..jobs will pick up and the outlook will be a lot better as soon as Obama is gone in 2012 and we all know this.
Joe66!!! To bad that you think this way, but sorry sir jobs will go up economy is going to pick up and Obama will be re-elected. All I want for the New year is for Europe to get it's act together and it will be all good.
Like it has for last 3 years with millions out of work and millions more on welfare. Think before you vote.
News from Europe, Greeks are forced to wait for retirement until they're 56. Every man, woman and child owe $44,000 on the Greek national debt.
News from the USA. Americans are forced to wait for retirement until they are 62. Every man woman and child owe $45,000 on the USA national debt.
And the Greeks are in trouble? We can trust the IMF?
Financial Reports, Standard and Poor (sp intentional) Banks, Corporations are all scamming the system.
Predicting the outcome for the market in 2012 is the same as picking the next horse race winner. Hope for a little good luck because there is no such thing as a sure thing.
It is possible that with good news and great fan fare stock market has topped in 2011 and will decline in 2012. Google for "What will the stock market do in 2012" for a different perspective. If stocks decline, Obama will lose.
SamuelsS Stocks are not the only metric Obama faces. Analysts are saying 8-8.5% unemployment is very likely Nov. 2012. The market better be at 14K for him to get past that. And the quality of jobs better pick up. If Americans really thought it through they would vote anyone but Obama. He's in Jimmy Carter Territory.
SamuelsS is saying that stocks is an early indicator of social mood. When the mood turns sour, it is first reflected in stocks, and then the economy, and politics. This is why in recessions incumbents fail to be elected for a second term. Similarly, this is why stocks go up first and recession ends later.
The United States is in line to get our country foreclosed upon, just like what’s happening to the European countries. The entire banking system is corrupt and rigged.
I think most people have figured out that Wall Street is one of the most corrupt and ethically deprived institutions on our planet. I think most people also know the media is bought and sold just like most politicians. We also know that Wall Street is one of many tools of the elite but not the main tool. What is very clear is that our financial system has an architect and carefully designed plan that is playing itself out in Europe.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is very brazen in its fear mongering that we have lost a decade economically. Especially since the IMF has been one of the biggest contributors to perpetuating the instability of the European crisis. The dominoes are beginning to fall in what is an orchestrated attempt by the banksters to consolidate Europe and eventually the rest of the world’s economies under one umbrella that is to be controlled by those that have always controlled currency and money. The most egregious aspect of this contrived extortion is that they are blaming the people who are the backbone of any economy instead of their greedy corrupt political and business leaders.
George Papandreou was pressured to quit because he lapsed into a morally and ethical responsible position by trying to give the people of Greece a say in their economic future through a referendum. This vote would have given the Greek people the choice to stay in the Euro zone and allow their country to be foreclosed upon by the banksters or leave the Euro regain their sovereignty and coin their own currency once again. The IMF bullied the smallest country as a litmus test for what is going to be a much more challenging foreclosure process when it comes to the larger economies. Italy is now in the cross hairs. This dilemma you are watching unfold goes to the core of the rotten apple that is the world’s financial system.
Folks, you are witnessing the death throes of a desperate corrupt financial system where the stock markets and the fractional reserve banking system are at its core. The volatility in the stock markets are a microcosm of the greed, theft and corruption that has perpetrated all aspects of our and other countries economic systems. In the United States, It doesn’t matter who’s in office. Our political system has turned into a two headed one party system with both parties serving their masters, Wall Street and the banksters/Federal Reserve. The stock market is just another ponzi scheme whose intent is to fleece the gullible at the bottom of the pyramid. The stock market is a rogue element of a financial system that is meant to funnel the wealth to the elite/banksters who soicopathically control our financial lives. It is reaching a point where there is nothing anymore to take from the 99% of the world. The banksters would separate you from your rainy day fund if they could gain access to your shoe box or secret compartment in your purse or wallet. The stock market isn’t the main problem; it’s the fractional reserve banking system that has set the foundation for outright theft. We are experiencing the biggest bank and investment robbery in history and the banks and financial institutions are doing the robbing. When you blame one political party or another they have you right where they want you, in fear, divided and distracted to the theft that is going on right in front of your eyes each and every second of the day.
When you have people on Wall Street day trading and speculating making half a million dollars a year in their twenties betting on people being foreclosed on, you need to ask yourself what is the true purpose of our banking system? At the moment it is largely a theft on the American public. MF Global CEO, ex Goldman Sachs CEO Jim Corzine knows this and knows that nobody with his connections have served any time for stealing the investor’s money (1.2 billion at last count). The financial system’s main mission should be to allocate capital to areas of greatest growth in the real world economy. Yet they allow all kinds of broker speculation and financial gimmicks such as the derivative markets which are based on non-realistic side bets which are now in the quadrillions. The derivatives market was illegal for most of the 20th century.
The European banking crisis is a prime example of what is going to happen to all economies associated with stock market fraud and the Federal Reserve banking system. The financial strife in Greece is the model that will befall most countries. Greece is but a symptom of a cancer that has attached itself to the world’s economies. The Federal Reserve (which is neither federal nor a reserve) has been creating money (monopoly money) out of thin air and charging interest on it insuring a debtor economy for anyone who chooses or is forced to get involved with the Federal Reserve and their fractional reserve banking system. That is why this whole European or any countries current debt crisis will never be resolved and will be preyed upon by the stock market vultures. The Federal Reserve System is designed to cause economies to fail.
If someone loans you two dollars to run your economy and expects three back for the loan and interest how are you going to pay the third back? You can’t unless you borrow more dollars which puts you in perpetual debt and in a constant borrowing cycle to pay off the debt. This is designed not accidental.
Here’s the kicker, once the Federal Reserve/banksters have you struggling to pay off your interest, they send in their loan sharks the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF will loan you money to cover your ever burdening interest payments but they attach a provision that if you default, you will have to give them your assets in what they call privatization (foreclosure).
Since the interest is exponential, you will default and the banksters will come in and try to foreclose on your country, like Greece. They are being told to sell off their own country to pay back the people who caused the mess to begin with. This allows the elite to steal your intrinsic valuable assets because they gave you paper (loans/debt) and the interest on the debt that is systematically impossible to pay back. This also allows the parasitic stock speculators to profit from this designed theft. They not only know the outcome of an economy, they can gamble on the economic bubbles at the investor’s expense. This cancer goes all the way down the food chain.
In the United States case, it doesn’t have to be that way. In our constitution, in Article 1, Section 8, it stipulates that we can “coin money” as a nation and avoid the Federal Reserve’s interest (fee charged on loans) black hole.
So don’t be fooled that the Europeans have come to grips with their financial debt, it’s impossible, it’s a virus that has spread around the globe. The Europeans are now replacing their leaders with technocrats/ex Goldman Sachs banksters. These people haven’t been elected by anybody. The stock market vultures will continue to contrive “financial instruments” (credit default swaps/credit derivatives) to defraud the people of the world.
Banks, Central banks, World Bank, BIS, IMF = Federal Reserve = Debtor economies, Debtor Nations (economic slaves) and carrion for the stock market derivative heist.
oh come on, who is going to read this novel?
My retirement funds are invested in the stock market and with all the ups and downs of the market for 2011 they still managed to squeak out a positive return by being conservatively invested. Since 1984 they've managed an annualized return of 6% to date. Maybe if you invested some time in learning how to invest as opposed to learning how to feel the world is mistreating you, you'd find your glass half full as opposed to half empty!
Wonder if they would look in their crystal balls and give me the lottery numbers for a really big ticket? I could use a little extra cash.
the analyst groups are talking out of there asses like the idiot in washington. earlier yesterday it was on the news that these genius speculators who need to be charged with robbing the american people , that fuel will rise in 2012 probably. until somthing is done to bring down the fuel . money will be tight for employers and employees alike, not much is going to change. america moves by truck, mostly which are diesel powered . and is long as diesel is high food, clothing , household goods and most other products will remain at high prices. part of the trickle down effect.
Somehow (1) commodities speculation, (2) adjustable rate mortgages and (3) unemployment are escaping the list of priorities for lawmakers.
Defense Industry / Financial Sectors seem to be the only ones able to get their requests. Commoners STFU.
I'm afraid this will continue no matter who is elected this year. It's because the people are not fairly represented. We need to realize this, and make the necessary adjustments. The citizens of America, disenchanted.
It would be in our best interests to keep a strong healthy population that is interested in keeping a strong healthy nation. Instead of constant turning away. Closed doors, backs turned, check marked as 'ignore'. The sky is falling.
Not here. Here the solution involves getting the public's message across to lawmakers, through any number of methods. Here we are camping out front of their buildings. Still, 'ignored'. Blogging about it, 'deleted'. Speaking about it, 'mute'.
The changes need not be radical or extreme. But slow implementation, steady growth, think about the money tree. Let it bear fruit year after year.
Peace, Prosperity 2012.
The U.S.A. is in the crapper. Things are going to get worse in 2012. Wake up America.
Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
2011 - Catch-22 Year In Review
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” - Mark Twain
I published my predictions for 2011 on January 3, 2011 in my article 2011 – The Year of Catch-22. Humans evidently enjoy being embarrassed by how pitiful they are at predicting the future, because we continue to do it year after year. The mainstream media pundits don’t dare look back at their predictions or the predictions of the Wall Street shills that parade on CNBC and get quoted in the Wall Street Journal, eternally predicting 10% to 15% stock market gains. The multi-millionaire Wall Street strategists like the spawn of the squid, Abbey Joseph Cohen, have used all of their Ivy League brain power to predict at least a 10% stock price gain every year since 1999. The S&P 500 stood at 1,272 on January 6, 1999. As of this writing it currently stands at 1,261. ZERO appreciation over the last twelve years.
The Wall Street mantra of stocks for the long run is beginning to get a little stale. If Abbey Joseph Cohen had been right for the last twelve years, the S&P 500 would be 4,000. For this level of accuracy, she is paid millions. Her 2011 prediction of 1,500 only missed by16%. The S&P 500 began the year at 1,258 and hasn’t budged. The lowest prediction from the Wall Street shysters at the outset of the year was 1,333, with the majority between 1,400 and 1,500.
The same Wall Street clowns are now being quoted in the mainstream media predicting a 10% to 15% increase in stock prices in 2012, despite the fact we are headed back into recession, China’s property bubble has burst, and Europe teeters on the brink of dissolution. They lie on behalf of their Too Big To Tell the Truth employers by declaring stocks undervalued, when honest analysts such as Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman and Robert Shiller truthfully report that stocks are overvalued and will provide pitiful returns over the next year and the next decade.
I will take my chances with a few predictions for 2012 after reviewing my lack of foresight regarding 2011. I declared 2011 the year of Catch-22 because no matter what happened, it would not translate into a positive result for the American people. This was my thesis:
The United States and its leaders are stuck in their own Catch 22. They need the economy to improve in order to generate jobs, but the economy can only improve if people have jobs. They need the economy to recover in order to improve our deficit situation, but if the economy really recovers long term interest rates will increase, further depressing the housing market and increasing the interest expense burden for the US, therefore increasing the deficit. A recovering economy would result in more production and consumption, which would result in more oil consumption driving the price above $100 per barrel, therefore depressing the economy. Americans must save for their retirements as 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 every day, but if the savings rate goes back to 10%, the economy will collapse due to lack of consumption. Consumer expenditures account for 71% of GDP and need to revert back to 65% for the US to have a balanced sustainable economy, but a reduction in consumer spending will push the US back into recession, reducing tax revenues and increasing deficits. You can see why Catch 22 is the theme for 2011.
My predictions for 2011 were as follows:
The payroll tax cut, extension of unemployment benefits and Bernanke’s gift to Wall Street criminal banks did nothing to help real Americans in the real world. The government manipulated GDP has languished between 0.4% and 1.8% in the first three quarters of 2011. Using a true measure of inflation, as detailed by John Williams at www.shadowstats.com, GDP has remained at a recessionary level of -2% to -3%.
Easy Ben accomplished his goal of pumping up the stock market with his QE2 gift to Wall Street bankers during the first six months of 2011, with the S&P 500 peaking at 1,364 in late April. The market began to fall the second Ben stopped handing Jamie Dimon and his friends $4 billion per day, with the market dropping 18% in three months. The market has risen back near the breakeven level for the year based on Ben’s promise to keep interest rates at zero forever and the hope of QE3.
The brainless twits on CNBC will dutifully report the number of completed foreclosure sales plunged by 24% in 2011, giving the impression to their non-critical thinking viewership that all is well on the housing front. What they will fail to point out is that the number of foreclosures in process went up in 2011 and now stands 59% ABOVE the level in 2009 at the height of our recession. The reason that completed foreclosures have fallen is twofold. The criminal Wall Street banks can’t prove they hold the mortgage notes on hundreds of thousands of homes and they have a few legal issues related to the massive robo-signing fraud they committed. Kicking old ladies and Iraq War veterans out into the street using fraudulent documentation has caused the Wall Street Too Evil To Believe Banks some public relations issues. Secondly, the Wall Street Plutocrats have these mortgage loans valued at 100% on their balance sheets due to the FASB gift of mark to fantasy accounting rules. Foreclosing actually reveals their assets to be overvalued by at least 50%. This may explain why millions of Americans are still in their homes after not making a mortgage payment for two years, as detailed by economist Tom Lawler:
Given the number of loans either seriously delinquent or in the process of foreclosure at the beginning of the year, the number of completed foreclosure sales in 2011 is almost absurdly low, reflecting the complete screw-up of the mortgage servicing industry, and the resulting dramatic slowdown in foreclosure resolutions. As of the end of October, 2011 LPS estimated that there were 1.759 million seriously delinquent loans with the average number of days delinquent at 388 (compared to 192 days in January 2008), and there were 2.210 million loans in the foreclosure process that had been on average delinquent for 631 days.
Completed Foreclosure Sales And Short Sales/DILs (thousands, estimates)
2008 2009 2010 2011(E)
Completed Foreclosure Sales
914
949
1,070
815
Owner-occupied
N.A.
N.A.
785
608
Non-owner-occupied
N.A.
N.A.
285
207
Short Sales/DILs
105
270
354
380
Foreclosures plus Short Sales/DILs
1,019
1,219
1,424
1,195
Outstanding first liens:
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Seriously Delinquent (90+)
1,016
1,983
3,061
2,168
In Process of Foreclosure
860
1,386
2,110
2,203
The concerted effort to not complete foreclosures did nothing to slow the continued descent in home prices. As you can see in the chart below from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/, real home prices will have fallen another 5% in 2011. Obama and his minions threw $50 billion of your tax dollars at the housing market in 2009 – 2010 with tax credits, loan modification programs, homebuilder tax loss carry-backs, and a myriad of other Keynesian claptrap solutions. They succeeded in pissing your tax dollars down the toilet as prices have declined another 12% in the last 18 months. Prices have fallen 42% nationally since 2006. I wonder who missed the boat on that development?
“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit.” – Ben Bernanke – July 2005
There are approximately 48.5 million homes with mortgages in the United States and 10.7 million of them have negative equity. Another 2.4 million have less than 5% equity. Considering it costs more than 5% in closing costs to sell a house that means 27% of home occupiers with a mortgage are trapped like rats in a cage. With 2.2 million foreclosures still in the pipeline and a looming recession, home prices will continue to fall another 10% to 20% over the next two years and one third of all home occupiers will be underwater. That sounds like a recipe for 10% to 15% stock market gains.
Bennie and his Inkjets did a bang up job in 2011. He was able to expand his balance sheet from $2.47 trillion to $2.95 trillion in twelve short months. According to Ben and his Federal Reserve friends, increasing your balance sheet by $480 billion isn’t really printing money out of thin air and handing it to their Wall Street owners for free, so they can prop up the stock market and enrich their executives. Ben is now leveraged 57 to 1. He should move to Europe, where this level of leverage is commonplace. In comparison, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were leveraged 40 to 1 when they went belly up.
There is absolutely no way that Ben Bernanke could ever reduce the Federal Reserve balance sheet to the pre-crisis level without destroying the U.S. economy. He knows that and will never sell off those toxic mortgage assets. Not only won’t he reduce the Fed balance sheet, but by mid-2012 he will institute QE3 and buy another $600 billion of mortgage debt. His hubris knows no bounds, as his reckless illegal actions thus far have not driven interest rates sky high – YET. He has only destroyed the finances of senior citizens, savers and people who eat food and use gasoline. He will surely go down in history, but not the way he envisions.
As Bernanke printed like a drunken sailor during the first six months of 2011, the USD fell by 9% and the price of oil did exactly as expected, rising to a peak above $125. The NATO “intervention” in Libya also added a few bucks to the price of a barrel of sweet crude.
DXY
The complete implosion of Europe and the ensuing weakness of the Euro have given the false impression that the U.S. dollar is a safe haven. The USD has regained its losses and will end the year exactly as it started versus a Euro heavy basket of world currencies. With annual deficits equaling 10% of GDP, a national debt now exceeding 100% of GDP, and Ben Bernanke in perpetual printing mode, the USD is destined to reach its intrinsic value of zero. With Brent crude still above $108 a barrel, employment still weak, and double digit food and energy inflation slowing consumer spending, the ECRI knows a recession during 2012 is baked in the cake.
It seems I was wrong about Europe. It turned out to be much worse than anyone envisioned, with Italy now the likely fuse that blows the whole thing sky high. The ECB has made Ben Bernanke look like a lightweight by increasing their balance sheet by 44% to over $3.5 trillion in a futile effort to solve a debt crisis with more debt. It seems central bankers are programmed to print until the very end (see Weimar). The European Union will not survive 2012. Too many countries, too much government debt, too many zombie banks, too many bureaucrats, too much austerity rammed down the throats of citizens, and not enough honesty or reality based solutions.
State and local governments have laid off 535,000 workers since 2008. With borrowed Federal government stimulus handouts evaporating into thin air during 2011 – 2012, this total will reach 800,000 by the end of the next year. The U.S. Postal Service will do their part by cutting 28,000 jobs in 2012, even though they need to cut 100,000. States and municipalities based their budgets on the revenues produced by the fake debt driven housing boom from 2003 – 2007. The tax revenue dried up, but the union jobs added are a gift that keeps on costing taxpayers billions. States and localities can’t print, so layoffs will continue.
According to official government statistics China’s economy continued to boom in 2011. But, of course Chinese government reports make the BLS look honest. The fact is the Chinese stock market has fallen 28% since April as the property bubble deflates. If their economy has truly grown at an annual rate of 8% to 10% over the last five years, why is their stock market down 62% from its 2007 high?
SHANGHAI INDEX
The price inflation in food and energy prices, along with the property bubble bursting has led to breakouts of civil unrest across China. China’s two biggest markets – Europe & the United States – are in or near recession and are buying less of their crap. They can only build so many vacant cities and shopping malls to create the appearance of growth. The hard landing is about to get harder in 2012.
It seems I got the timing wrong on this prediction, but the August showdown was a doozy. The threat of a government shutdown resulted in the stock market collapsing by 18% in a matter of weeks in August. Our beloved politicians then came up with another bull@!$%# non-solution by creating a commission which, after months of negotiations, failed to do anything. The $1.2 trillion of automatic spending cuts will never happen. The slime that inhabit the hallowed halls of Congress will pretend to cut, while actually increasing spending. And so it goes. The stock market has risen from its October low based on Easy Ben’s assurances to keep interest rates at zero forever and the anticipation of QE3 in the new year.
Corporate profits did rise, mostly due to Ben Bernanke providing free money to the Wall Street Mega-Banks so they could generate risk free profits on the backs of senior citizens getting .15% on their savings. It also helps when the same Wall Street banks can make accounting entries declaring that future loan losses will be minimal and the toxic mortgages on their books aren’t really worthless. Who knew accountants could do so much for America? Abbey Joseph Cohen only missed her stock market projection by a smidgeon. The S&P 500 is essentially unchanged for the year, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 will finish in the red.
The country did not add 2 million new jobs. It added 1.4 to 1.5 new jobs. Too bad the working age population went up by 1.7 million people. But our friends at the BLS, when they aren’t manipulating away the inflation that real people in the real world experience every day, have the gall to declare the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.8% to 8.6% in the last twelve months. How could this be you might ask, since the working age population went up by more than the number of people who found jobs. Easy if you are a BLS government drone. Everyone knows that things are so good out in the real world that 1.8 million Americans decided to kick back and enjoy the good life by leaving the workforce. It wasn’t because they gave up looking for the jobs that were shipped to the Far East by the mega-corporations making record profits and paying record bonuses to their executives. It’s just a rumor that those long lines at food banks around the country have a few of these “lucky” non-members of the workforce in them.
The housing recovery is just around the corner. Larry Yun, chief liar for the National Association of Realtors, assures us that it’s the best time to buy. We all know that the NAR is a bastion of honesty and truth. Just because they reported 3 MILLION more home sales than actually occurred between 2007 and 2010, you can’t scorn, ignore and treat everything they say as a bald faced lie. If Larry says the housing recovery has arrived, it must be true.
Revised Previous % Change
2007
5,022,000
5,652,000
-11.1%
2008
4,124,000
4,913,000
-16.1%
2009
4,334,000
5,156,000
-15.9%
2010
4,182,000
4,907,000
-14.8%
When the pundits on CNBC sum up the year, they will not be touting the fact that gasoline prices went up 10% in the past year and the average price for a gallon of gas was the highest in U.S. history. They will not be proclaiming that even the government manipulated CPI shows food prices up 6% and clothing prices up 5% in the last year. I’m sure glad Ben Bernanke doesn’t see any inflation on his radar. Maybe he should ask his chauffer about his inflation. Lastly, the stocks for the long run crowd will not be yakking about the fact that gold finished up 10% for the year and has been up for TEN consecutive years. I wonder whether the numbskulls on CNBC can look at the chart below and figure out why gold is up ten years in a row. The national debt reaching $20 trillion by 2015 is a given. I wonder whether the price of gold will be higher. Maybe I’ll give Abbey Joseph Cohen a call and ask for her prediction.
Overall, my assessment of what would happen in 2011 wasn’t too far off. But, it was the things that I and virtually everyone on the planet missed that will reverberate in 2012 and for the next ten years. Our 20 year Crisis deepened, became more violent, and clearly revealed that the establishment will use all their power to put down protests and crush opposition to their corrupt crony capitalistic policies. The major developments I missed regarding 2011 included:
I’ll take another shot at predicting the unpredictable with my next article: 2012 – The Year of Living Dangerously.
Is this really the right forum to be submitting lengthy articles? If I want to read commentaries from other sites I will go to those other sites, thanks.
Blog it and link it, but spare use the long treatise!
Think before you write! Are you trying to impress us all or do you have a real point? If you have a point, make it quickly and succinctly so we can get it without reading a book.
Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild, founder of the International Banking House of Rothschild said:
“Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.”
The Rothschild brothers, already laying the foundation for the Federal Reserve Act, wrote the following to New York associates in 1863:
“The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.”
"I have unwittingly ruined my country.” Woodrow Wilson later said referring to the FED
“We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it.” Congressman Louis T. McFadden in 1932
The Federal Reserve Bank (FED) is a privately owned company that controls, and profits immensely by printing money through the US Treasury and regulating its value.
“Some [most] people think the Federal Reserve Banks are U.S. government institutions. They are not … they are private credit monopolies which prey upon the people of the U.S. for the benefit of themselves and their foreign and domestic swindlers, and rich and predatory money lenders. The sack of the United States by the Fed is the greatest crime in history. Every effort has been made by the Fed to conceal its powers, but the truth is the Fed has usurped the government. It controls everything here and it controls all our foreign relations. It makes and breaks governments at will.” Congressional Record 12595-12603 — Louis T. McFadden, Chairman of the Committee on Banking and Currency (12 years) June 10, 1932
In 1906 David Graham Phillips wrote a series of articles published in Cosmopolitan claiming that politicians were receiving huge payments from large corporation to argue their case in the Senate. Phillips claimed that the main figures in this scandal was Aldrich and Arthur P. Gorman of Maryland.
David Graham Phillips was murdered on 23rd January, 1911. Two months later Aldrich resigned from Congress.
Sir Josiah Stamp, president of the Rothschild Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920s, said the following in 1927 at the University of Texas:
“The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin. Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again. Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.”
The Federal Reserve was conceived and given birth by an unholy alliance of American and British bankers. The FED buys U.S. debt with money printed from nothing, then charges U.S. taxpayers interest. The US government pushed through the federal income tax amendment, restarted an income tax on Americans to pay the interest to the FED and reorganized the IRS to collect the monies – the interest - “owed” to the FED from its citizens.
Just the FACTS , Everything else the government tells us is BULL$HIT
Since the Fed’s creation in 1913 the dollar has lost more than 96% of its value.
Undoubtedly the greatest achievement of the FED has been to transform America from being the world’s foremost creditor nation to the world’s largest debtor nation.
Aldrich’s motto, when questioned about his activities and the reasoning behind them, was to "Admit nothing. Explain nothing."
"Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.” should be on every thinking person’s radar screen. Is it on yours?
The alledged 96% of value is due to inflation caused by the ever increasing population driving up the costs of goods (supply and demand). If you want the value of the dollar to stay the same we'd have to have near zero population growth.
LouisCKforPresident.com
Stock market is a bubble. Deflationary crash is coming and Great Depression is going to pale in comparison. Google for "how to prepare for market crash" to understand the problem we are facing. An entire nation cannot borrow non-stop for decades and then hope that it will be ok when the pay back time arrives.
Today we have a chance of rain, but, then on the other hand it might not.
A sure thing, Oil company profits will go up.
The bumpy line may be affected by the quakes: it just happened today that there are quakes horizontally across U.S.A and the similar pattern has happened just several months ago to which the quakes hit the states of Virginia and Colorada and California.
The state of Okalhoma is not the first time got hit by earthquakes. The Keystone pipeline cannot built across the U.S.A. vertically for there have been earthquakes this year horizontally across the U.S.A.
When the study of Keystone pipeline was completed back in 2008, there had no earthquakes that time. But for somehow the earthquakes have happened already several times this year and the quake zones appear on the whole west coast and the mid-cross-section, horizontal section, across U.S.A.
Please do not build the Keystone pipeline to which it may be built upto the northern states but they also have to consider any preventive measures of terrorist attacks to which who will pay for the cost.
I think the economy will continue to improve slightly but there are a couple of major risks ahead. Fitch and Moody's may follow S & P's move and downgrade our debt, in fact they are late to the party. Also, I would bet the business headlines this year will be full of a few European banks failing as a result of their bond holdings in the PIIGS.