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Retail sales this holiday season are expected to rise 3.8 percent to a record of $469.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. While the increase is less than last year, it is a significant improvement from the slow holiday seasons the last few years.
How does 2011 compare to other years? While probably not among the best, it’s also certainly not among the worst, according to 24/7 Wall St.’s analysis of the worst holidays since the Great Depression.
People are tempted to spend less when times are tough. Fewer presents are exchanged and people travel less. Those without work often despair. And the joy that is supposed to accompany the end of each year does not exist for many people.
24/7 Wall St.: Cities that added and lost the most jobs
24/7 Wall St. compared 2011 against each holiday season since the Great Depression. We looked at unemployment, GDP expansion (or contraction), GDP per capita, and the Consumer Price Index. These are good indications of whether a holiday season was merry or not. High inflation erodes the ability of people to buy goods and services. Slow GDP expansion or contraction means that consumer spending is likely to be in retreat. The effects of unemployment are obvious.
Not surprisingly, many of the worst holiday periods coincide with deep recessions. This is certainly true for the harsh times during the downturns of the early 1970s and early 1980s. The 1982-1983 recession had a record number of months in which unemployment was more than 10 percent.
People may look back on 2011 as a difficult holiday season for a number of Americans, but it was not among the worst, as history shows.
These are the Worst Holidays Since The Great Depression:
3. 1949
- Unemployment: 5.9 percent
- GDP Expansion: -0.5 percent
- GDP Per Capita (Inflation Adjusted): $12,365
- CPI: 1.3 percent
The American economy contracted in 1949, causing the first decline in consumer prices since the Great Depression. The price of housing and health care, however, went up. The Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb.
24/7 Wall St.: Housing markets that rose and fell the most this year
2. 1975
- Unemployment: 8.5 percent
- GDP Expansion: -0.2 percent
- GDP Per Capita (Inflation Adjusted): $22,592
- CPI: 9.1 percent
The global economy suffered heavily from continued stagflation in 1975, with countries such as the U.K. experiencing inflation rates of close to 25 percent. In the first quarter of the year, the U.S. GDP dropped 4.8 percent. The stagflation caused an increase in wages, which resulted in mass layoffs and the highest unemployment rate since 1941. New York City nearly went bankrupt after the federal government refused to bail it out, producing the now-famous Daily News headline about then President Gerald Ford, "Ford to City: Drop Dead." Ford eventually gave in, lending the city $2.3 billion.
1. 1982
- Unemployment: 9.7 percent
- GDP Expansion: -1.9 percent
- GDP Per Capita (Inflation Adjusted): $25.282
- CPI: 6.2 percent
The year 1982 was the worst of the early 1980s recession, with unemployment rising above 10 percent, including a 10.2 percent rate for the month of December. GDP contracted 1.9 percent that year, the most it has since 1946.
Click here to read all of 24/7's Worst holidays since the Great Depression
Leave a Comment:
And this is news to whom?
the HYPE, is starting to run out, we have a totally dysfunctional Washington, a middle class job meltdown, a inflation on the way, a banking system on life support, a Federal Reserve only interested in saving the western banking system, by issuing more Treasury notes, all backed by future payroll taxes, and a two party system in collapse, what could go wrong .
Its news to the readers of ObamaNBC.
Yes, Virginia, this is news. The United States has experienced hard times before - and - thrived. The 'boomers' were not handed everything on a silver platter - they experienced hard times in the past, too. The DJIA is not a measure of the health of the economy. Our economy may seem bad but it has been bad before - and - the United States came through.
Yes, Virginia, this is news. It is bad news for the economic parasites and leeches that thrive on a message of defeat. Beware the parasites claiming the United States is finished - history is proof they are lying.
Yes, Virginia, this is news. It is good news for the millions of Americans living on Main Street USA. Yes, we are all experiencing a difficult economy - many of us have been hurt badly. But together we can work through this and return to better days. History is proof that we can do it - together.
Yes, Virginia, this is news ...
Apparently for the Republicans, it was OK to have the notably bad conditions in 1982 (2 years in) that persisted under Reagan (or in 1975 under Nixon) but it is apparently not OK for it to persist under a Democratic administration.
I wonder if the Democrats in Congress at that time tried to deliberately sink the economy to remove Reagan from office. I don't think so. Nixon managed to remove himself so you cannot blame the Democrats for that fiasco.
Nerm-L
Yes the economy has been bad before, however, there are structural issues that to me make this the worst ever as far as an expected recovery are concerned.
After the Great Depression, we built stuff becasue we had lots of stuff that needed to be built. Stuff like roads, bridges, real estate subdivisions, retail space, office buildings, airports, canals, docks, sea ports, you name it. All of that building of stuff created opportunity for masses of people to be employed.
Look around. All of that has been built and in many places, built to excess. Agri workers are foreigners and even they are not needed as before due to advancements in machines, technology, and the marriage of the two. We don't need welders in our shipyards because we don't build any ships. We don't need home construction because we have an oversupply of houses. When I was young and looked down my street, there was a car in front of every third house. Now there are three cars in front of every house, so all the auto industry will be able to supply is replacements for an ailing fleet, not the initial fleet itself. Same for airlines. So just "what" is it that is going to employ the masses again?
I could go on, but hopefully, you get the point. I don't see the "what" as in what will people be doing that will allow the masses to be once again fully employed. Couple the lack of the "what" with the current lack of skills of far too many workers, and the picture only worsens, yet our education system is seemingly locked in the 19th century. So if the jobs are not going to come form the "what" and are not going to come from marketable skills of the masses, then that only leaves government as the last hope.
So how does this picture look to you? Exactly how does this picture change for the better?
Hey Nerm_L, do us a favor and ask Virginia to hold on. Then Nerm_L, take a basic economics course and find the meaning of structrual unemployment. This isn't news and the specious bullpoints you spew (another term you are probably unaware of and will need to research) aren't applicable.
We are no longer an industrial country. We no longer manufacture. In fact, we have forgone all those fundamental mainstays that brought us out of previous headwinds. We have even abandoned our farmers, making farming a losing proposition in most circumstances.
Those few firms that are new and successful (e.g. Apple, Amazon, Google) employee significantly fewer employees in the US per dollar earned (e.g. server colocations, outsourcing to foreign workers).
yes, Virigina, Nerm_L is out of touch with reality, but I'm sure his dimentia is quite a fun place to be. Sadly the rest of us see the dynamic for what it is.
This is supposed to be enlightening? zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Hey Beev PLEASE have a Happy Holiday season. I know it is hard. (Thats what she said), LOL....
And of course a hearty Merry Christmas to all from the folks that brought us the gift that keeps on giving. The Great Recession. Many thanks to Goldman Sachs and of course our bought and paid for Congress! And especially Barney Frank, The head of the financial services comitteee!
Ya mean Barney FWANK!
backatcha ren. I just hope we all survive the insanity of 2012 leading up to the election. I don't know which is more maddening; the buffoons in Washington, or all of us on this silly newsvine trying to talk sense into one another. We are so polarized, people with good intent try and enlighten others and all it does is turn into one big free-for-all bitch-fest. Seems like such a waste of time. lets see, I'll go generic so as not to rile the PC police; "Have a warm and mellow holidays...peace unto you and your family." ...wonder if that will stir up some more BS?
Ya know Beev it is like Vietnam we did not fight the enemy we fought ourselves. How sad was that? God Bless, ren
It usually doesn't take even that much Beev,instant bull@!$%# just add comments and you're bound to piss somebody off.
Based on all the whining you see here, you'd think this WOULD be one of the worst holidays ever, and yet it isn't according to the article. If I had a dollar for every post here about "obama sucks, we're still in a recession, things are terrible, obama sucks, america is destroyed, obama sucks, blah blah blah" I'd be retired.
so yes, it is news ren..at least to all the haters who regularly whine here. :)
I do find it fascinating that ren and beev, two of the haters here, downplay the article. It doesn't fit their hate narrative. :)
have a merry xmas, and i'm going to celebrate my 401K results from when obama took over. lol. :)
Well, Vermontguy, if you'd read the actual list, you'd see that the only year since 1982 that made the top 10 was Obama's - 2009. While we had fewer mass layoffs in 2010 and 2011, there hasn't been much to celebrate the last two years, either. There has been very little improvement in terms of employment and economy - just a continuation of the worst situation in decades. Those of us who started working in the 1980s have never experienced worse times than the Obama years, at least not as adults. You'll just have to excuse us for not feeling much like celebrating again this year, since we're busy trying not to go broke.
vermont guy...from a neighboring native of New Hampshire...long since transplanted to Georgia out of necessity... I wish you the happiest of holiday cheer. I don't know where you get off calling me a "hater" though? That was down right un-called for and exactly why I posted my comment. Do you know me? How bout I buy you an airline ticket, fly to Hartsfield...I'll buy lunch and we'll have a beer summit. First...maybe talk about the time I passed through your neck of the woods to a little farm for an event called Woodstock. Then how I got my head bashed in at the 1971 May Day Demonstrations in Washington D.C. Then, how as I grew up,...I began to view life in a slightly different perspective.
You owe me an apology for trying to pigeon-hole who and what you think I am.
Beev, vermont guy is a fool and hopeless liberal. I ran into him before. He is one of the useful idiots. What can you expect from Vermont LIBERALS as opposed to New Hampshire Conservatives!
Hey ren- YOU are also acting as one of the useful idiots right now. Reason why? partisan politics. If the unwashed masses fight amongst themselves, then business can continue as usual in the places of power. All they have to do is continue the inaction and wasting their time on ridiculous things like affirming "In God We Trust" as the national motto. The country is mired in recession (personally, I think its Depression). And this is what they spend time on? As long as their beds are nicely feathered, then they can act with less than the urgency this situation presents.
Gridlock doesnt just happen in the halls of Washington. It also happens in the streets. Two parties, but the same coin. Both sides are now bought by lobbyists and their corporate/banking masters. We need to find common ground if we are going to turn this ship around. The Tea Party movement was outraged by the handouts to bankers, just as the Occupy Wall Streeters are. We need to stop sniping at each other, and find common ground. I would suggest that the Tea Partiers need to make more of an effort to let go of the things that dont matter right now - like gay rights. BOTH sides should reject new resolutions on the state / federal level concerning this, and other such divisive issues. We can return to the LUXURY of these arguments once we have returned this nation to some level of self-sufficiency and productivity again. When we have a country mired in economic misery, these social issues are used as distractions. For BOTH sides.
I voted for Obama, and Im not too happy with him. Im disillusioned. He stacked his administration with former Goldman Sachs employees. Business as usual. I feel betrayed, but I am not embarrassed that I voted for him. McCain would have us in just as bad a situation, perhaps worse. I still like Obama's polish and intellect - but hell - Ted Bundy was a real charmer too.... I feel betrayed by Obama. A whole lot of us do. But, if I had to do it again, I would still have voted for him, in the spirit of the "lesser of two evils".
The fact that I feel the candidates we are presented with are groomed and already in the pockets of the corporations and bankers is what has me more irritated than anything else. Im to the point where I am ready to vote for Ron Paul, because the "establishment" contorts itself to marginalize him, yet when I hear him, he is a man of passion, who is talking about the issues with seriousness.
Time for us all to stop staring each other down and turn our eyes in unison towards Congress and the Administration. Watch them freak out then. I suspect they may even give their special new amendments to the National Defense Authorization Act a try in such a situation.
This holiday season we are giving less than we have since our children were born. Hubby on FMLA, daughter with recent cancer growth removal, me physically unable to do what I used to do for a living.
But the odd thing is that we are so much more at peace this year. We have the greatest friends that have helped us out in so many ways and an outstanding family.
Friends will see you through a time of no money much better than money will see you through times of no friends. Happy/Merry whatever you choose to celebrate to all!
All the best to you and your family, meh1956. May 2012 bring us all greater peace.
"Retail sales this holiday season are expected to rise 3.8 percent to a record of $469.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. While the increase is less than last year, it is a significant improvement from the slow holiday seasons the last few years."
Meanwhile Obama and his gang are spending 9% more than last year and would have spent 20% more if not for the republican sweep of Congress last election cycle.
This article tries to make it sound like a pretty good holiday buying season for retailers in spite of being worse than last year. How hard will MSNBC try to distort any story to prop up the failed Obama regime and his clueles economic policies?
still waiting......... internet check; 1-2-3. Am I transmitting?
Yup you are I am back to challenge the LIBERAL useful idiot vermontguy! Bring it on fool.
Good job republicans. Remembering the lie Johnboy BONER told when he was tricking the trailer trash crowd into voting in a GOP Congress. He promised JOBS JOBS JOBS - well Mr. Speaker? Where are the jobs?
How about stop the liberals?
Oh yeah,anybody who is against your liberal progressive ideas is part of the trailer trash crowd.
I thought you guys didn't indulge in hateful sterotypes.
the article states that people are "tempted to spend less". are they kidding? we don't have the money to spend! the credit cards got maxed out on groceries long ago. the ranks of the homeless grow daily. we aren't "tempted to spend less", we have no choice!
Hi everybody....hope you all have a great early-winter holiday season. Let's hope (and pray...but that might not be PC so we'll just HOPE) for an improving national discourse and economy in 2012. However, if we wait for government to fix things, we'll be waiting a long time (already have, as it turns out...so give it up already...those clowns in DC haven't got a clue).
So.....better that we study the example of a home builder who is promoting "Buy American" for everything used to build a house....all of it is Made in American....he did it for about 1% more in total cost. Below link is to an ABC video that describes one of the most hopeful stories of this holiday season about how Americans can help themselves and each other begin to rebuild this economy, create real jobs, and get us back on the path to the American Dream. Take a look.....you'll be reminded of what actually makes this country great...(and it isn't anybody in DC).
http://cdnapi.kaltura.com/index.php/kwidget/wid/0_04vzdsr5/uiconf_id/5590821
But just think of the millions of people worldwide that we the American taxpayers will be making happy during the upcoming Holidays.
Our elected officials like spending money that’s not theirs to squander; just to make themselves look good in the eyes of the world.
It makes one feel all warm and fuzzy inside, right?
And the point of the article is???
I am totally OK with buying less. My kids Christmas list has four things. 1)Something they want 2)Something they need 3) Something to wear and 4)something to read. We have had many years of plenty. The past 3-4, not so much, but my kids are happy. They actually think of others. They give out of their own money to charities and we spend a lot of time with family. Less stuff actually makes happier and much more gracious children. Merry Christmas. Love your family while you can, don't buy them things just for the sake of spending money.
What a bunch of nonsense! Right now things are the worst I have seen in my lifetime. I am sure if you have one of those lucrative govt jobs it all looks pretty good but for everyone else not so much.
The headline of this article is irresponsible. Clearly, it leads readers or passers by to believe it is the opinion of the authors that we are experiencing the "worst holidays since the Great Depression." Get with it, MSNBC. You know better.
And as for those who state they read the article, but somehow finished thinking the authors said these are the worst of times, perhaps you should try a little harder to be objective. Despite the best efforts of power-hungry politicians, we are on the road to recovery, albeit a slow one. Everyone deserves an opinion, but clearly, we can leave it to politicians and media to sensationalize the state of the Union, be it good or bad.
I can only speak personally about 1975 and 1982, but those were far better years than the ones we've had lately. Even in 1949, we had a robust manufacturing sector; same with '75. In 1982, the U.S. was still a creditor nation. We didn't lose that status until '83 or '84. Now, with globalism and high technology, it appears that we have a large surplus of workers, along with many other Western nations, and don't have a viable solution. Maybe we can start another land war in Asia (e.g., Iran), lasting perhaps a decade, and employ some of the surplus workers there, battling the Ayatollahs. That seems to be solution that we've gravitated to in the past. Washington doesn't have a clue as to how to solve problems. The latest gimmick of defunding Social Security will only jeopardize the program further, and not goose the economy. Before this, SS was adequately funded until 2036. I will bet my bottom dollar that the employee FICA contribution rate never goes up to 6.2 percent again.
I agree with your observations. I've never known so many people out of work and desperate. And only the clinically insane or complete sociopaths would agree with the current "unemployment" statistics.
I get tired of reading about what Christmas is supposed to be or what it used to be or what it isn't. Christmas originated, of course, to celebrate the birth of Christ. People who still celebrate that should not be stressing about what Christmas is "supposed" to be otherwise. Christ came from humble beginnings, and Christianity abounds with beautiful and meaningful traditions.
People who combine the celebration of the birth of Christ with the Santa Claus tradition need to prioritize their traditions. If they chose the celebration of the birth of Christ, they should focus on just the birth of their Savior. I don't remember that the Christ baby received an X-Box or a new car of a flat screen TV. Not even from his mom and dad.
People who celebrate the Santa Clause tradition need to start using their heads and stop being victims of commercialization and hype by the media. Children expect only what they've been led to expect. I know households who are rich and happy in the Santa Clause traditions and trappings who don't feel the need to overburden their children with expectations of expensive gifts and toys. I even know of families who don't own a single X-Box, Wii, DSX, or even a wide screen TV. The kids get toys from Santa Claus, but they are modest and suited to the specific child. If I had very little or no money for Christmas, I really would rather reject outside help and gather my family close and just spend the day together however we best could. Parents should not be ashamed or embarrassed to tell their children that this is the way it is this year. There are other ways to be happy on Christmas, stories and music (available at a public library) and maybe a few lights and ornaments from a Christmas gone by. Even a tomato soup meal can be made special. Kids usually bring home Christmas items from school. Use those to set the table. It's one day. Life goes on. The excitement and hype has worn off by the time the kids go back to school. If a teacher tells the kids to write about what they got or where they went for Christmas, call her/him and tell them that the assignment should be what they wish they could have given or could have gone or something like that. Take a stand. Pitting the kids against each other is wrong. You the parent is in charge of the family. Not the media. Not the hype. You, just you.
Excellent post, Churchmouse.
churchmouse3, while i respect your choice to celebrate the holiday as jesus birthday, it is not where the holiday originated. celebration, greens in the house, santa figures and gift exchanges during the winter solstice time were around for thousands of years before jesus was born. and acccording to religious historians jesus was most likely born in march.
Hey Ren Merry Christmas... Vermontguy is right you are a hater when the facts are not on your side you resort to name calling so sad you are blinded by all the right wing stuff
BTW I noticed you did not mention one of the worst unemployment rates was when the patron saint of conservatives was in office President Ron Reagan
But I forgot that must have been Carters fault even though that was no financial meltdown before Ronnie took over
Oh and how did Ronnie get the US out of this fix, he had the biggest deficit in the history of the country by the end of his term(Where was the TEA baggers then?) and the largest tax increase
You can have your own opinion but you can't make up your own facts unless you want to be on Fox news
HOPE & CHANGE.......Hows it working out for you??????
Not too bad, it worked for Jesus. And in commemorating his blessed birth, let us all remember that Jesus Christ was a socialist. And for those of you thinking about wall street, also do remember Jesus was crucified because he angered a bunch of bankers.
Well azrancher... since you asked, actually things could be working out better in our nations efforts to solve the problems you and the righties created but considering your obstructionist tactics and attacks on democracy, thing havent been bad...nice of you to ask
Azrancher alot better than if McCain "Let the car companies go under" became President
GDP has been positive for over a year and the unemployment rate is starting to get better this despite a republican do nothing to help Obama congress
Yea so the HOPE is that come this election we throw a whole bunch of you republicans out of office
Flash isnt it obvious Republicans hate Obama so much that they would rather destroy the country than see him succeed? Hell they even said as much..
I still have hope, and it's that Republican politicians get shown the exit.
Due to sticking with a budget, putting money in the bank and living sensibly my wife and I have money to spend on Christmas. So what's the problem? There seems to be nothing worth buying.
Things are made so cheap these days that it doesn't last. Why spend money buying junk?
Fashion stinks. Everything seems made for teenagers. There is little a middle aged guy would be caught dead wearing.
I'd love to buy a new computer but Apple is stuck in a rut and refuses to market a desktop computer positioned between the $600 mini and the $2500 Mac Pro. Sorry, I'm not buying any all in one that you need suctions cups to remove the screen in order to replace a hard drive. So after 20 year of using Apple computers I'll probably be switching to Windows even though I'd rather not.
So basically I'm holding onto my money because that makes more sense than throwing it away in goods that aren't worth a darn.
Sorry if I refuse to buy crap.
You are doing well. Every TV show online tries to make it look like you are a weirdo if you don't buy like crazy. I watch in distaste when i see people stampeding on each other trying to enter stores after waiting long lines. This is insane. It is better to save money, consume less. Consumers go into debt and become poor, only producers prosper. Consumer economy is a myth! Whenever we hear the consumer is holding up the economy it simply means we are spending the money we don't have! Google for "CREDIT INFLATION" to understand why it is not sustainable.
Come senators and congressmen, please heed the call,
Don't stand in the doorways, don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt will be who has stalled.
Honestly Gnel i hope the battle soon shakes some windows and rattles some walls otherwise the times will not be changin'
To Gnelson:"the answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind, the answer is blowin' in the wind."