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Job applicants register at an employment fair in Denver, Colo.
By Reuters
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped to a 3-1/2-year low last week, suggesting a weak U.S. economy is gradually improving even though factory data proved more mixed.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since May 2008, and confounded economist' expectations for a rise to 390,000.
In separate reports, two regional Fed business surveys showed stronger than expected growth in December.
The New York Federal Reserve Bank said its "Empire State" general business conditions index rose to 9.53 - the highest since May - from 0.61 in December. The index was boosted by a strong rebound in new orders and an improvement in hiring.
The Philadelphia Fed said its index of business conditions rose to 10.3 in December from 3.6 the previous month on a surge in new orders.
However, a report from the Federal Reserve on U.S. industrial production offered some reason for pause. Output dropped 0.2 percent in November, the first drop since April and much weaker than forecasts for a 0.2 percent gain.
"The data is in line with a modestly improving overall economy here in the United Sates," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Economists cautioned that troubles in Europe remain a major risk to U.S. growth, with fresh signs emerging on Thursday that the crisis in dampening production in Asia.
Some domestic risks are also lurking as lawmakers continue to haggle over extending a payroll tax cut and emergency jobless claims for U.S. workers. Failure to reach a compromise could dent the expansion early next year.
The unexpected drop in claims last week pushed them closer to the 350,000 mark that analysts say would signal a more sustained improvement in the job market.
It offered further proof of increased momentum in the pace of economic activity, even though retail sales rose modestly in November. This is in sharp contrast to Europe, where the festering debt crisis has already pushed some economies into recession.
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday acknowledged the improvement in the jobs market, but said unemployment remained high. The jobless rate dropped to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.6 percent in November.
The U.S. central bank said the debt crisis gripping Europe was a big risk to the U.S. economy, which it described as "expanding moderately."
A second report from the Labor Department showed producer prices rose slightly more than expected in November, while the year-on-year rate for prices excluding food and energy increased by the most in nearly 2-1/2 years.
The Labor Department said its seasonally adjusted index for prices received by farms, factories and refineries increased 0.3 percent, unwinding October's 0.3 percent fall.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected wholesale prices to increase 0.2 percent.
Excluding volatile food and energy, producer prices edged up 0.1 percent last month after being flat in October. That was below economists' expectations for a 0.3 percent gain.
But in the 12 months to November, core producer prices rose 2.9 percent, the largest increase since June 2009, after increasing 2.8 percent the prior month.
The report showed broad gains in producer prices but labor market slack could make it difficult for companies to pass on the increased costs to consumers.
The improving labor market tone was also highlighted by a drop in the four-week moving average of claims to the lowest since mid-July 2008.
The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid edged up 4,000 to 3.6 million in the week ended December 3.
Economists had forecast so-called continuing claims rising to 3.63 million from a previously reported 3.58 million.
In a further hint of economic strength, the U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $110.3 billion during the third quarter, its lowest level in nearly two years, as exports hit another record high, a government report showed on Thursday.
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seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted
seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted
seasonally adjusted means temp X-mas hiring is not included.
OK, let's be frank here- With about a week and a half to Christmas and New Years, would you: 1. Hire anyone and have them start, or 2. Apply for a job now or wait until New Years to file?
I'll be Scrooge, but I think we'll see those same numbers rising about mid January and beyond. Companies are floating through the holiday sales and then will start shutting down, letting go of short term hires, etc. Once the final year tasks are complete it'll be a blood letting. Just face it, even the military is starting to lay off people.
unemployment checks run out,
unemployment checks run out,
unemployment checks run out,
unemployment checks run out,
unemployment checks run out,
unemployment checks run out,
unemployment checks run out,
Therman - Is there any way you can stop your Seasonally Adjusted crap? In fact why don't you post how unemployment is really measured? Try goolgling the U6 number. Do you understand THAT? And if things are getting better how do you explain the MSNBC headline today:
'Dismal':
One in two
Americans are now
poor or low-income
????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
My goodness, the amount of initial claims is a toss away metric that is not worth it's weight in dog crap. And you vote?
Let us not forget those poor saps who have ran out of unemployment and simply dropped off the radar as I see no mention of them here either and they would greatly impact the "REAL" jobless rate in this country. Whenever we read an article about the jobless rate decreasing or increasing we must take into account those who are off the radar (for what ever reason,) and have for one reason or another, simply given up.
You know the presidential elections are near when the media starts reporting an artificially inflated improvement in the jobless rate. I for one can't wait to see how they are going to make Obama look good in this area this spring, summer and fall, when the seasonal jobs are long gone.
That being said. God bless America, and I hope I am proved wrong and that our economy is truly on the mend, but I am not holding my breath.
How unemployment is measured:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#why
How the U6 the real unemployment figu6re at 15,6% is measured:
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
The most important headline on MSNBC Today:
'Dismal': One in two
Americans are now
poor or low-income
Latest census data depict shrinking middle class as unemployment stays high and government's safety net frays."
Are you there Therman?????? Inatial claims are down because the slaughter is almost done.
Sorry, but seasonally adjusted doesn't mean christmas temps are included, contrary to what the first moron claims.
That Obama sure wrecked the economy.
Wait a minute it was already wrecked when he took the oath of office.
Nevermind.
Companies must be having a hard time finding more people to layoff. Not necessarily a good sign.
Wait till after the New Year. Can't wait for the spin to begin. Long live the revolution.
Exactly! more Obombo and PSMNBC liberal propaganda!
Not only temp hiring not included but the large numbers who ran out of benefits are, now no longer on the books.
Spin, spin, spin...
I believe that says it all. Nice spin job on the headline there MSN.
I'm one of those no longer on the books. I have maybe one or two days of work next week and meanwhile the bills are piling up again. If I can keep everybody paid enough for 2 weeks, I will be working as self-employed for the next 12 weeks and hopefully I can line up work for when that is over.
herzogzwei.
The numbers don't have to be the same. If you are unemployed, you have something like 4 weeks to claim unemployment for any week. Because people don't want to claim it, they may not immediately. Then they find out they won't be able to pay the bills and file.
the economy is picking up steam...much to the chagrin of the rightwing and the republican party....sorry republicans and rightwing robots unemployment is going down as new jobs are being created....slowly but surely your dream of a 1 term Obama is fading in the sunset....on the other side is the storm thats coming to you, a landslide victory for liberal and progressive policies and finally the end of Reaganomics and the trickle down my leg lie....bye bye...
As much as progressives (liberals) hate to see this post and will do whatever they can to keep others from seeing it, once again we have a weekly -- or near daily -- article showing that this is going exactly as the model predicts for the extension of the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2010. Please refer to my post here (#1.44 from August). This has been predictable since roughly mid-October of last year when it became obvious conservatives would make large gains in Congress. Hiring grew as soon as it became apparent that taxes would not be raised, then the hiring leveled off. Once the new hires were comfortable with their new income source, they started spending. The economy grows.
This next step is proof that businesses feel better about their own situations and another round of hiring is commencing as well as having less rounds of lay-offs. All very predictable results of the extension of the Bush tax cuts. And this organic job growth will continue. That is unless the small businesses that are the engine of job growth are threatened with higher taxes again or Europe tanks because the European governments have been acting like we've been acting, only longer.
One should also note that this rise in economic indicators is well after the trillion dollars of failed boondoggle "stimulus" has been spent. We don't need more of that same kind of failed "stimulus" policy. We need more of the freed market success that we are experiencing now.
There are times to consider raising taxes and times not to consider raising taxes. When unemployment is above 6% it is not a time to consider raising taxes...on anyone...especially job creators.
Whoot! Good news for America! USA! USA! USA!
real michaud, the economy is picking up steam because of conservative policy proposals that the Dams blocked and wouldn't even allow to the congressional chambers' floors for debate in early 2009 (extension of Bush tax cuts, payroll tax reduction, etc.). These were finally implemented when it became apparent that conservatives were making huge gains in Congress in late 2010. Unemployment has gone down, down, down ever since those proposals were implemented.
Mike,
Could it be Holiday hiring, the 2 year plan for UN-employment benefits, and the pretended tax savings on the payroll tax reduction have sort of propped up the holiday sales and helped to distort some of the truth here? If the UN-employed masses had no money, would that have impact on Holiday Sales? All of that free money or pretended tax savings comes at a price. It's sort of like the big box furniture store people are lured into with no payments, no interest, etc for 4 years. Well, we are 2 years into that 4 years and there will be hell to pay when that bill comes due.
I have gone to the local mall expecting huge lines and parking issues based on the reports of phenomenal sales activity and related. I have never seen the mall so barren of cars and traffic? The other barometer, "Bags"! When you look at the people in the mall you will find very few of them carrying large bags or any bags.
Many friends are requesting I buy them little or nothing. The real objective is that they are financially stressed and don't want the embarrasment of my buying more than they could buy for me in return.
I don't want to appear to be the Grinch. It just worries me to see abandon of senses and a distortion of fact. There isn't a bright light down the hall of our future prosperity. We are encumbered by uncertainty and a complete failure of leadership. But, it is what the masses vote for.
No, the numbers are seasonally adjusted and therefore account for holiday hiring.
No, the 2 year plan for unemployment benefits has been in effect since early 2009 without this type of positive effect. It is not suddenly turning the tide. It's not like the guy on unemployment last year and who is still on unemployment now somehow got a raise and is spending his extra cash.
Maybe a small part of it, but unemployment eased before demand picked up (which it has just recently) from extra money in peoples' paychecks. Like I said this fits exactly the expected outcome from the model of the Bush tax cut extension...organic hiring first, then organic demand. BTW, that was a conservative proposal that the Republicans put forward in 2009 and that the Dems rejected for almost 2 years. They wouldn't even allow it to the chambers' floors for debate.
Interesting that your anecdotal evidence runs completely contrary to known, factual sales numbers. Hmmmm...who should I believe, the facts or the anecdote?
There are great points being made in a few posters comments (Time to Say NO MORE, Ernie-201266, and JoeNY). The few that are trying the let's blame political parties crap need to stop. This problem is the result of greed, and greed alone. it was projected in 2005 that the economy was going to tank, but only a handful saw the problem being as big as it is. The U.S. economy was doomed with the start of the housing market debacle, and continued headlong and unchecked through 2008-2009 (remember paying almost $5 dollars for a gallon of gas?). The economy is starting to stabilize, but it won't be an overnight event.
It's all Bullsh1t! How about the millions who have run out of benefits? They treat them as nonpeople eh? Obama and Democrats want us to believe they are improving the unemployment figures, in order to continue their "tax and uncontrolable spending policies". It's all Bullsh1t!
This article means nothing. You can't gauge anything Nov and Dec. Come back late January and lets talk. I can tell you for sure, in our Industry, most are taking a longer shutdown than last year. Some for 2 full weeks. Payroll has been falling for the past 3 weeks and will get even lower for the rest of the month. Business is still waiting for some glimmer of hope from this Administration that they will end their anti-business campaign. Until that happens, we're going no where, regardless of what the talking heads say.
BTW - it is pointless to attempt to sign up for benefits after being unemployed for over a year, and then getting a short term job and being laid off again.
Majority Democratic Congress during Bush 2 and Obama wrecked this Country. Out of the past 5 years Democrates Controlled the House in 4 of them. Who controls the Governments spending? DUH! Go back to 2006 and check for yourself. Only Morons, Idiots, and Obama toelickers don't understand.
I don't know many Democrats who were for letting the Bush tax cuts for the middle class expire with the economy in the shape it was at the start of the year. We could have let the tax cuts for high earners expire with little impact on the economy, and used it for much more stimulative purposes. Tax cuts for high wage earners are the least effective form of stimulus you can have.
As for the impact on small businesses, just 3% of small businesses are impacted because so few small businesses make more than $200K in profit. And if you move the tax rate up to income over $1 million, you're talking about 1% of "small businesses" impacted.
This is garbage. For starters, Republicans don't even really want to extend the payroll tax cut. Many of them are going around saying it hasn't been effective. They're only doing so because it looks terrible politically for them to be against a middle class tax cut and for a tax cut for the rich.
It has to be noted that the unemployment started declining before Republicans took power. And it continued right up until the Republicans started taking the government hostage and threatening to shut down the government and not raise the debt ceiling. Then the economy started turning south. That's ridiculous. We would have been saddled with much worse unemployment had that stimulus not passed. In addition, 40% of the stimulus was tax cuts.
The real job creators are the consumers. Without the consumer, there are no jobs, there is no demand. No demand, no jobs. You give tax cuts to the "job creators" and what is their incentive to hire more people? Why are you going to hire when there is no demand for the product/service you're selling? The "job creator" is almost certain to either pocket it, or spend it overseas where there is more economic opportunity.
I think our economy would growing faster and unemployment would be falling faster if we actually hired the unemployed to do work this country needs. Chamber of Commerce backs extra infrastructure spending. How about some aid to states so the economy stops bleeding jobs at the state and local level. Since 2008, Government has shed almost 800,000 jobs. If people don't think that has had a huge impact on our economy, they're crazy.
So if "seasonally adjusted" means not including the temps hired for a particular purpose, why a special term for a non-event? Why not just ignore the people hired during that period? How does a statistical company determine which people were the temp and which were the long term hires?
As usual, the right wingers take no blame for the mess they created. President Obama is working hard and succeeding - though slowly - to undo the damage created by Bush/Cheney. But, the GOPers will never admit the truth.
every month these type's of numbers come out , the next month they annouce the "surprised" real numbers , which are always lower or opposite...interesting
uuuhhh...cutie...a little history...democrats have controlled Congress for the majority of the last 75 years...Congress spends the money...democrats "caused this mess"
Mike, did you happen to read the article on MSNBC this morning about store returns hitting an all time high? In some parts of the country people are buying stuff and then taking it all back later for a refund when they realize that they overspent. I also have been to the mall on a Saturday morning and marveled at how barren it was. It was like a big fancy ghost town with a lonely Santa in the middle wondering where all the kids were.
I don't care how consultants juggle the numbers. I just don't see that many people buying stuff and the ones that are shopping aren't buying as much. I'm just not seeing an improvement in the economy with my own eyes. Or my own pocketbook.
Maybe it is small but even a little good news is worth celebrating. I believe the buy American campaign is doing more to improve our economy than anything Congress has done. And using less credit is doing more than anything the banking and financial industry has done.
The government has refused to help the Main Street economy by adopting conservative policies. The banks and financial industries have ignored the Main Street economy in hopes of saving their fake profits.
Main Street can and will fix our economy. It does not require any great sacrifice - just search for Made in America labels. Buy or not, as you choose - but - if you are going to buy - then buy American Made whenever you can.
It really is that simple ...
Well, except hiring wouldn't have kicked off like it did last October through April. And to be clear, hiring kicked off before any kind of notable rise in the demand of goods.
The only people who believe this also believe that instead of investing their extra dollars, the rich actually stuff the money in giant mattresses. I mean studies by noted Keynesians like Christina Rhomer -- former Obama Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers -- show that tax relief has a multiplier effect much higher than government spending, especially in times of high employment elasticity (high unemployment). Of course this confuses them and they throw up their Keynesian hands saying "We don't know why", but the resultant higher multiplier effect is very consistent.
This is such a disingenuous and hollow misuse of statistics. It doesn't matter that only 3% of small businesses make $200K. There are thousands upon thousands of women selling Avon and guys that have a weekend lawn service. What matters is that a large percentage of people making more than $200K are, in fact, small business owners and THOSE are the small business owners who actually hire. Those are the people who create over two-thirds of the jobs in the US.
You may think it's garbage, but it's the documented truth. Regardless of where they stand now, The Republicans tried to advance the payroll holiday policy as part of the boondoggle "stimulus" of Feb. 2009 and the Dems wouldn't even let it to the floor for debate. This is well documented.
I noted that. Unemployment started declining as soon as it was obvious that conservatives would make huge gains in 2010 and that the rates would be extended (mid-October 2010). The timing supports the idea that there was pent up employment demand that was being held back by the threat of higher taxes. As soon as it was obvious to the job creators that the rates would not rise, that pent up demand was released. It was entirely predictable.
I hate to burst your rainbows and unicorns bubble, but the economy did not "turn south". The 2011 3rd quarter GDP growth (July/August/September) was higher than either Q1 or Q2 GDP growth and Q4 GDP growth looks to be even higher.
This is a lie. Even when the stimulus was counted as $787 billion, real tax cuts were only 28% and that was before the cost of the "stimulus" grew to $850B and more. Also these cuts were primarily geared toward lower and middle classes, with only a tiny amount for job creating businesses.
Their incentive? To grow their business. Why else? I know this is going to rock your rainbows and unicorns world, but business owners have their own personal household budgets too. They budget for their house. They budget for their vacations. They budget for their kids' schooling. What's left over they invest in their business. If that money is eaten up in taxes, they have less to invest. Having more spendable money allows small businesses to hire more people and make more purchases which creates more demand which creates more jobs. Oh and BTW, most small businesses are local, so the whole "spend it overseas" comment is ridiculous.
The problem is that the government spends based on political agenda and that doesn't create organic job growth and nor does it apply money"to do work this country needs". No businessPrivate businesses do grow employment organically, based on the needs of the consumer. Remember how the boondoggle stimulus was sold? It was sold as a massive "shovel ready" infrastructure bill. That's not what it was though. In the end less than 10% was spent on infrastructure. Instead it was an agenda driven, pet project filled, political thank you laden, boondoggle waste of a trillion dollars. Did it have some impact? Of course. A trillion dollars is going to have some impact no matter what you do with it. It absolutely wasn't very effective though. I'm not particularly against infrastructure spending. That's absolutely not what we got last time and after that I have no reason to believe that's what we would get this time. After all, you have leaders like Nancy Pelosi who think "We have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it".
We gave massive amounts to the states in 2009 and that didn't turn the economy around. After the weaker than expected business cycle upturn, we flat-lined from mid-2009 to late 2010. And to be accurate it is more like 500,000 jobs since 2007 and most of those have been lost in the past year and few months. But wait...isn't that when the unemployment rate has been going down???
AnotherLBowman, I didn't say that everything was back to normal now. We still have 8+% unemployment and 15+% underemployment. I'll note though that the return rate is roughly the same as last year. I would expect that a record year in holiday spending would also make for a record year in holiday returns. That's not shocking.
You and a lot of other people. We should be a lot farther along than we are now from the trough two and a half years ago.
P00r Tax Payer @ #1.26
It's all
Bullsh1t!Bushsh1t!There. Fixed it for ya.
@meadow..."Bush"...hahaha...the young have such a carefree existence
democrats have been the majority in Congress for most of the last 75 years...that is where the rubber meets the road...
Your "model," as you call it (or more aptly put: flawed hypothesis), that jobs are created when tax cuts go into effect, followed by a lull, followed by another surge, should be called the "what ever happens proves me right hypothesis." Its no more impressive than a "psychic" cold reading.
Still there are two ways to expose this "model" as a hypothesis driven by your confirmation bias. First, your logic is flawed. Second, your analysis comes to the point of drawing sympathy.
On the logic front, you are operating on a nearly static view that all employers higher all at once and then all stop at the same time (in waves). In the real world, employers act on news in different time frames, and assess/react to risk differently. There would be no reason, then, to think that employers will, based on the tax extension, all higher at once and then stop for a few months, and then higher all at once again. When companies hire, they don't do it all at once either, but instead have a continuous plan. Its almost like you are suggesting a guess and check system for employers. Lastly, hiring is normally driven by demand anyway. Its easy to see that generically lowering taxes does not correspond to consumer spending or employment just by looking at the 2000's.
On to the analysis. Your first point:
To the contrary consumer spending started to rise well before before the hiring took place. The data is easily found on the BEA website if your curious. Additionally, according to employment data from the BLS, private sector employment began to increase in February 2010 at differing rates slowing down in May and started to speed up in July. A reasonable trajectory based on regression analysis of jobs created month to month fails to show a correlation between the tax extension and hiring.
Your second point in reference to the relatively low multiple regarding wealthy tax cuts:
The multiplier changes with every additional detail. Not all tax cuts are the same and not all government spending is the same. Certain tax cuts have smaller effects than others and same goes for government spending. "Temporary," cuts have a lower multiple as do general cuts to the wealthy.
Another variable, which you noted, but failed to consider, was timing. What kind of balance do we have? Investment is good, but consumer spending is important as well. Without the proper amount of sustainable consumer demand all of the investment will just create a bubble.
Thats a lie. The estimated number was 38% of the estimated 787 billion, and although the estimates were 5% too low according to the CBO, the tax incentives were also more than 5% higher than expected. The last number I saw by the CEA was 42%.
Back to the (not) impenetrable logic. In response to a question to what their incentive is hire...you replied
Then you go on about rainbows and unicorns and say that business owners invest whatever spare money they have into their business. Shockingly (not so) you lack the ability to understand that spare money for "job creators" do not equate to jobs. Sometimes it does, but only when demand allows it.
Holiday hiring is not a surprise this time of year
Just what part of seasonally adjusted do you not understand?
How unemployment is measured:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#why
How the U6 the real unemployment figu6re at 15,6% is measured:
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
The most important headline on MSNBC Today:
'Dismal': One in two
Americans are now
poor or low-income
Latest census data depict shrinking middle class as unemployment stays high and government's safety net frays."
Are you there Therman?????? Inatial claims are down because the slaughter is almost done.
seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted, seasonally adjusted
therman you are correct seasonally adjusted means temp x-mas workers is not included knowing that they will be hired just for 2-3 months thats why they dont include them in the seasonal report
How unemployment is measured:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#why
How the U6 the real unemployment figu6re at 15,6% is measured:
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
The most important headline on MSNBC Today:
'Dismal': One in two
Americans are now
poor or low-income
Latest census data depict shrinking middle class as unemployment stays high and government's safety net frays."
Are you there Therman?????? Inatial claims are down because the slaughter is almost done.
Therman -- Time
Please, abandon the playground, both of you, and go home!
See #1.3 above.
Where are the statistics for the jobless whose benefits have run out?
They don't count. Denied. Not real anymore.
Lost your job and struggled just to find a low paying job to do something? You are employed now!
Etc. Etc. There are alot of things not included and about 8 ways (that I've heard of) to count unemployment.
The unemployment number includes those who don't receive unemployment benefits. So those no longer receiving benefits are counted as well as the larger number of unemployed who have never received benefits.
BTW,
Those would be the 'discouraged' workers for ones that don't get benefits. However, if you completely give up and go on the dole, IE welfare, or give up and go homeless you're not even considered a 'discouraged' worker. You're just not counted as part of the labor force. That causes all the numbers to go down.
Also you didn't answer the other part of the question about people who had a 'good' job vs the ones that are now burger flippers or sales clerks. That's a huge problem with the 'recovery' (laugh). It's a systematic downgrade of the American standard of living. Which is unacceptable.
How can a Liberal even attempt to look at this as a good sign with unemployment? Libs you realize that roughly 6 million people have left the work force or even looking for a job since Obama has taken office, don't you? Once you get your 2 years of extension with unemployment, you are done and no longer a statistic!
I do enjoy the libs trying to spin this into something positive, but feel bad for them at the same time!
If I were Romney or Newt, I would hammer Obama on this! Newt should ask Obama about the 6 million people who have left the work force but are not considered into the statistics of unemployment. How would Obama defend that? Newt should also ask Obama, why haven't you submitted a budget since you have been in office? He had full control of congress for two years and still didnt submit a budget. All previous president have, but Obama, WHY?
Very tough to be a liberal and defend Obama....very, very tough!
James, like you care one little bit about the "6 million who have left the workforce." What did Newt say just recently? "They should go out and get a job... right after they take a shower." We all know how the GOP feels about the jobless... yes indeed.
I'm sorry, every week the unemployment claims drop, Republicans ALWAYS say it's because benefits ran out. Stop spinning. The numbers are calculated the same way every week. Every time we get some good news, it's not because people suddenly stopped collecting benefits.
And for those point to temp jobs, they are figured into the numbers. Because every holiday season, people are hired to temp jobs, and they have an impact on the unemployment claims every single year. This week's number is adjusted to account for what claims were in years past. Unless you think this holiday season is unique in its temporary hiring, temp jobs are figured into the seasonally adjusted data.
Pedestrian.....how do you wake up and look in the mirror? Your state that I got the hell out of is in worse shape of any in the union after years of Liberal policies, illegals on welfare, education cuts, allowing people making 50K/year to buy a 600K home.
Every Californian is out there bitching, yet they keep voting back in the clowns like Boxer who continue to allow the state to run itself into the ground.
Now you re-elect Brown who trashed CA in his first go around. Right out of a Hollywood nut case movie.
lol @ Steve, my state (which can only benefit from your departure) just got rid of a GOP governor - no wonder we're in such shape. Interesting to observe the parallel - country still gasping from failed GOP Bush policies, etc., eh?
BTW, you are incorrect. Those who have dropped off the radar are NOT counted in the statistics.
Pedestrian
But we have had a DEMOCRAT CONTROLLED LEGISLATURE for the past 16 years. And I belive the Democrats controlled it for 38 of the last 40 years. But not sure of that.
james do you realize about 10 million people have reached retirement age since our President took office?
It's called the U6 rate. Google can find itfor you
I have been trying to sell my Ocean front Arizona property I think whoever is falling for this BS. should buy it.
nice try Arizona dont sit by the ocean
But your being a Democrat you should buy it, because that's what Democrats do; spend money on worthless projects and raise taxes to pay for it, or just plain give away tax payer's dollars in the form of entitlements to people who aren't citizens and then you want to give them citizenship just because they have lived under the radar illegally for years sucking on the welfare tit! Yep you should buy it before some other Obama supporter does. That way you can donate it back to the illegals. How nice.
Stay a Democrat!
WOW!! So this is a Democrat, Amazing, no WONDER Obama got elected , when someone is so STUPID that they cant see age old sarcasm, they will believe ANYTHING. Geez dude you really make Democrats look bad. I know they dont need you to do that for them , but you didnt have to verify it so eloquently.
Why so much hatred towards the Dems???? None for former President Bush.
You can't tell me President Obama created this mess with NO HELP from the GOP. You guys are too funny!
Both parties are equally culpable.
Hannaka
Still Really, who still brings up Bush? Most have stopped blaming Bush.
Sorry I just have to do it..... Bush's fault, Bush's fault, Bush's fault, Bush's fault, Bush's fault, Bush's fault! Hannah, it's time to look in the mirror as you are the one's who voted for the moron in office now!
lol... kind of like "trickle down economics" or maybe those "nukular threats" from Iraq, or even "Dems want to tax the JOB CREATORS! -gasp-!" eh? talk about deluded...
democrat4evr
nice try Arizona dont sit by the ocean
Ladies and gentlemen, this guy has a vote.....and his a Democrat! Well, that sums up this party!
"Still Really, who still brings up Bush? Most have stopped blaming Bush"
I guess we should stop blaming Charlie Manson too, LOL!
"nukular threats"
Priceless!
Decades to recover........decades.
Just imagine the good news that will be touted when everyone that can be fired has been fired and there are no more jobless claims.... of course about all that will be left are government employees and a few private sector employees. The rest of us will be living in cardboard boxes and begging for on the street.
gday67:
The people getting fired right now ARE government employees - especially local government employees and especially teachers! The private sector is adding hundreds of thousands of jobs while the public sector is shedding them, slowing the recovery, and all because of misinformed cons like you! Quit blaming the government and get a job!!! Your ignorance is going to hurt for a long time as we churn out poorly educated Americans and children without a future.
I hope Mike Davis is correct about the private sector adding jobs, and public sector losing them. It's time the scales tipped back to a more sustainable ratio.
Also, if you have run out of benefits, you can't file again, but your still unemployed.
Just imagine the good news that will be touted when everyone that can be fired has been fired and there are no more jobless claims.... of course about all that will be left are government employees and a few private sector employees. The rest of us will be living in cardboard boxes and begging for on the street.
How did you get a hold of the GOP playbook.
Lot of people have dropped off the grid. We already know 350,000 stopped looking. Even more will drop off grid if Congress cannot agree to extend benefits. Don't fool yourselves the employment picture is not better. Its just getting more complex on how to figure it accurately with such a long period of unemployment.
Just wait until January and February roll along. Those part-time "seasonal" jobs will be long gone and they haven't turned into "full-time" positions! The unemployment rate will be again-on the upswing.
These figures in November and December didn't fool us OR impress us. We are not a bunch of dummies!
Seasonally adjusted! The part time seasonal jobs are not included. READ the article. Considering it is only about 10 days til Christmas, I do believe that most of the seasonal jobs were hired awhile back.
BarbaraB-810840 You don't understand what seasonally adjusted is, do you Barbara B? You really don't think that PhDs can think of the same "brilliant" idea that some schmuck in Indiana can? Damn, the arrogance of cons.
How unemployment is measured:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#why
How the U6 the real unemployment figu6re at 15,6% is measured:
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
The most important headline on MSNBC Today:
'Dismal': One in two
Americans are now
poor or low-income
Latest census data depict shrinking middle class as unemployment stays high and government's safety net frays."
tweet and Mike....I expect Jan-Feb if the unemployment does rise again that you will be on here apologizing to Barb. Likewise to Barb.
No Mike, they can't. They, the PHD's, have shown a remarkable lack of common sense, otherwise they wouldn't be democrats' supporting Obama. And the other idiots who voted them in, the Marxists in government, it's very obvious their head has been up their a.s.s. too long to know when they're being used to help bring Marxist/Socialism to this country. No intelligence what so ever.
Name calling is so nasty... GOP?
anoble banned, re-reg of wison Pick.
Why don't you ban Lynn while you're at it for copying and pasting someone else's post?
They have to say something to goose the market, they an always "downwardly or upwardly revise" next month as the Obama reelection propaganda machine requires. If bull$hit was gold we could pay off the national debt ten times over.
Thermen Merman
This report is for NEW filings, not the overall unemployment. It can also mean that there are less Scrooges out there who will wait until the new year before doing the deed.
Also 40% of companies offering no holiday bonus and now we learn that nearly 1 in 2 — have fallen into poverty or are scraping by on earnings that classify them as low income.
WHERE has this happened not here in Az. no jobs no home no food, makes for a bleak Christmas almost everyone i know is in need of help to keep their heads above water and most are failing so where is this happening?
Love the posts here. If the numbers were bad, you'd blame Obama. If the numbers were good...they aren't valid.
We've been fooled by Obama & Co. too many times before!
Always blame Obama, even though the republicans said " vote for us and jobs is first on the list" Obama sends them a proposal and they turn it up side down. Start blaming the right people. SO before voting again think about what the republicans have rejected and who they support. If you are jobless and have no food,or place to live. Then republicans is not the one to vote for. wake up people and see what people stand for.
How unemployment is measured:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#why
How the U6 the real unemployment figu6re at 15,6% is measured:
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
The most important headline on MSNBC Today:
'Dismal': One in two
Americans are now
poor or low-income
Latest census data depict shrinking middle class as unemployment stays high and government's safety net frays."
We don't vote for communism no matter what THEY, they Democrats say or promise because it is a lie. We're smart enough to know what the difference is, unfortunately Denise, you and your cronies still have to learn and very possibly learn the hard way. No more MARXIST, LIBERAL, SOCIALISM!!!
True enough.
Ask Harry Reid why all those House jobs bills are sitting in his desk; he refuses to bring them to the Senate for debate!
I don't blame Obama for the mess he inherited - and it was a mess. But after 3 years in office it's past time for the accountability to go where it belongs. Obama promised jobs would be one of his top priorities, yet the first year and a half when he had a democrat controlled congress he never really mentioned it other than the so-called stimulus plan. That jobs bill he came up with (which actually encourages companies to hire part time workers over full time!) could have been introduced much earlier in the game.
And the "party of no" promised jobs... so where are the jobs.. Mr. Boehner?
Oh.. the Koch brothers and Karl Rove aren't hiring unless you are a member of Congress. Nice .. so goes the fall of the US.
Sitting in Harry Reid's desk.
Of course when the numbers are bad you blame Bush. When the republicans took control of the House last year you were all saying, "You're in control now, show us the jobs." As the numbers get better now you forget that and give Obama credit. Works both ways Beach.
In the President's and Dept of Labor's mind!!
Wonder how many peoples benifits ran out on the survay
It used to be that 250,000 unemployment claims with LOW unemployment was a sign of a healthy economy.
Now we hear about how 366,000 claims, in ONE week, with a 8.6% unemployment rate because hundreds of thousands had their benefits run out and were dropped as unemployed even though they aren't working, and a REAL 16% overall unemployment is now a sign of "recovery".
We sure have lowered our standards of "recovery" and "healthy" under these Democrats.
Our population is much higher that it used to be. Do you understand how this effects this?
CherylLM
Right you are. I remember those numbers too.
The important thing to remember is this....no matter what....Obama bad. Foxnews good.....lol.....
"Fox" "Truth" "Quasi Socialist".....yep you got em in there....
It wouldn't be so high, (the population) if our government would get off its ass, seal the border and deport the illegals living off our tax dollars! We'd receive a triple benefit from doing that. Of course Obama and his cronies don't want to protect our nation, they want us to be a Socialist/Marxist state under their authority. Not going to happen.
Good one, Paul! For those who don't understand, read Animal Farm (again).
If you repeat something over and over again.. people will believe it. Just how have the Dems and President Obama turned my country into a Socialist state? And as good as we are doing.... maybe we should go that way. Keep watching "fixednews" and you too will become a sheep.
for all the people that are comfortable with their jobs, and griping about people that are unemployed and saying to get a job better watch out as they just might take your job,and work more for less money. it happens more than not. where do you think they'll go for work? they'll go for your job!!!! that, my friend is what happened to us.
Think highly of yourself? Don't worry ...your day will come. Arrogance is really boring.
More propaganda.
So MSLSD, what are the numbers of folk who are simply no longer getting unemployment and have simply given up any hope of getting a job in the Obama economy?
Last year, MSLSD was touting the same thing during the holiday season....until the revised numbers came out.
Looks like it's getting harder and harder for MSLSD to carry the water.
This simply means that firing/layoffs have stabilized. What happens in a couple of weeks when everyone lays off their part-time Christmas help? Numbers are only going to mean something when real job hiring increases and people start dropping from the government assistance programs.
Just means there weren't any more people left to fire or lay off... at least until after the first of the year.
Bogus report.
The guy in the middle in the picture has a job - he plays the vice president on Homeland!
ONLY because once the unemployment checks quit and the people STOP looking for work ... they do not count them ... its P.F.M. ... Pure F-ing Magic!
Just what part of new claims and seasonally adjusted do you not understand?
I have not seen a such a collection of ignorant posts in a while.
What part of reality do you not understand - Thermen?
How unemployment is measured:
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#why
How the U6 the real unemployment figu6re at 15,6% is measured:
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
The most important headline on MSNBC Today:
'Dismal': One in two
Americans are now
poor or low-income
Latest census data depict shrinking middle class as unemployment stays high and government's safety net frays."
Thanks to the Republican tinkle down policies of the last few decades thank you.
We wouldn't have such a large number of ignorant posts Thermen, if you and your Democratic friends would just quit posting!
Both parties are culpable.
Bought and paid for.
Wait until after Christmas
Stop with the LIES you POS journalists!!
No New Claims =/= New Employment
Stroll down to your local community college and take Economics 101...shmucks!
At least the Market is up on the job news I guess they forgot about Europe today.
Yes but now 1/2 of the American population is poor or low income. Obama has traded high unemployment for low income workers. It's still no win for the American worker.
people were losing jobs before Obama. Now thanks to all the republicans to say no to jobs, no to unemployment and everything that will help low income and middle class. shame on you republicans to turn everything down. They just keep helping the rich get richer.
Yes Denise blame it on the Conservatives....it seems that you have forgotten how Barry has stalled on the Keystone XL pipeline ...a definite job creator. Estimated between 6,000- 25,000 new jobs
Harry Reid (Democrat-Senate) announces that any Republican Bill received is DEAD UPON ARRIVAL...without even having the courtesy to view the merits... of course the Democrats remedy for EVERYTHING is "Tax the Rich" NEVER reduce the spending.
tell Denise to remember Pelosi 'unemployment is good for the economy'
yeah right? that's exactly what she wants more people depending on the
government so she can get re-elected and raise taxes! spend spend spend!
all the better to get them on social programs.
John, if the pipeline will create that many jobs, I'm sure you can provide a reliable link proving that. I don't know where you get your info from, but even a couple of states said NO to the pipeline going across their states.
Care to explain that? I doubt you will, but I had to ask. As for that so called trickle down effect, that has turned out to be welfare for the rich, as they aren't creating jobs.