Gadhafi's death helps clear way for oil exports

It will still be several months before Libya can export as much oil as it did before it descended into civil war earlier this year. But the killing of Moammar Gadhafi reduces the chance that violence will get in the way as Libya cranks up production again.

And as Libyan crude returns, it could lower the price of oil on the international markets and gasoline at American pumps.

The type of crude produced by Libya, known as light, sweet crude, is rare. It is especially valuable because it is easier for refineries to convert into diesel and gasoline. Many refineries can't switch easily to processing other varieties of crude.

Before the civil war, Libya produced only 2 percent of the world's oil. But even small interruptions in oil production can have a big effect on the price because the balance between supply and demand is delicate.

When fears arise that supplies might fall short, traders get nervous, and prices can go up fast.

The price of oil jumped 35 percent between Feb. 15, when protests started in Benghazi, and April 29, when oil hit almost $114 per barrel, the highest since 2008. Gasoline prices in the U.S. rose from $3.12 before the fighting to a three-year high of $3.98 on May 5.

High prices, plus the prospect that Libyan crude would disappear from the market for a long time, led a group of oil-importing nations to announce the release of 60 million barrels of oil from emergency stocks. That included 30 million from the United States.

The price of oil came down because traders figured Libyan oil would return after Gadhafi was ultimately overthrown — but also because of concerns that a worldwide economic slowdown would reduce demand for oil.

By Wednesday, oil had returned to its price before Libya's uprising began. It fell 81 cents Thursday to $85.30 a barrel in New York trading. The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. was unchanged at $3.47.

The oil market's reaction to Gadhafi's death was muted because efforts to revive the Libyan oil industry have been under way for months under the Libyan transitional government.

"It was a foregone conclusion that Gadhafi was finished," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS CERA, an energy research firm, and author of a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry.

Before the war, Libya, which sits on the biggest oil reserves in Africa, produced about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. Production collapsed during the war. Libya now produces about 390,000 barrels a day, a Libyan official said earlier this month.

Analysts predict the country can produce 600,000 barrels per day by the end of the year and 1.6 million by the second half of next year. By then, oil, depending on where it is traded, could fall $10 to $25 per barrel, says Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.

But getting back to regular oil production could prove difficult for Libya. Its government is still in its infancy. It has no parliament, no constitution and few remaining national institutions.

And infighting could spark a second uprising similar to the insurgency in Iraq, Barclays Capital analyst Helima Croft says.

"Certainly, having Gadhafi no longer on the scene takes away one source of instability. We just think the bigger problem might be the 'game of thrones' between various factions within the rebel ranks," Croft said.

One major issue is figuring out how to divide oil revenue among more than 100 tribes in the country, says Frank Verrastro, director of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

International companies will also have to be reassured that a new government won't try to drastically change contracts that have already been signed. And they want to be assured that their oil-field engineers will be safe.

Still, Verrastro says, initial reports on the condition of Libyan infrastructure have been promising.

Already, major oil companies are working with the transitional government. Last week, an Italian company called Eni reopened the pipeline that runs natural gas from Libya to Italy for the first time in eight months.

In September, it resumed production at a Libyan oil field, and it is back to its full capacity of 70,000 barrels a day. And Eni and Libya's state-run National Oil Corp. aim to restart gas production in November from a platform 70 miles off the Libyan coast.

The Spanish oil company Repsol, however, isn't producing oil from its fields in the southwestern desert of Libya, where fighting was more intense. After Gadhafi's death, the company would not predict when production would resume. Repsol won't send its employees back to the fields until the company determines it is safe, says company spokesman Kristian Rix.

Hess Corp., which has a minority stake in one of Libya's oil fields, said it hasn't decided when to send employees back to the country. "Until we're certain that things have settled down there, we can't say when we'll get back to business," spokesman Jon Pepper says.

More on Gadhafi

Who killed Gadhafi? Stories conflict

After Gadhafi's demise, biggest killers of Americans now are dead

Video: US drone fired missile leads to capture

Insight on how Gadhafi's death will impact oil prices, with Jim O'Neill, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Discuss this post

Oh goody! Let's buy some Libyan oil and ship it half way around the world back here. That's much smarter than drilling the oil that we're literally *%$#ing sittting on!

  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Thu Oct 20, 2011 5:41 PM EDT

WallSt oil flippers have never failed to find new hysteria to raise the price of crude. And the media, their co-investors, happily publish every lies, excuse, and concoction of the oil flippers.

The most noteables were: Peak Oil, the world is running out of oil; China and India are ravenous oil importers; Katrina has damaged refinery; Nigeria oil rebels attacked oil facilities; Refinery fires; switching from Summer blend to Winter blend; switching from Winter blend to Summer blend; oil is priced in volitile Dollars; and even scheduled maintence.

The death of Gadhafi, the birth of a new Libya and the resumption of crude production will not change the oil flipper's propaganda calling for higher crude prices. Having taken positions in crude futures, the media corporations will play up another song and dance at the behest of the oil flippers. Before long, all the sycophants fall in line.

  • 2 votes
#1.1 - Fri Oct 21, 2011 4:49 AM EDT

FatCat exactly, it's just one lame excuse or lie after another, and they (BIG OIL) have been peddling this kind of bullsh*t since the "Oil Crisis" in the 70's.

Where is the Federal Government? From another post, "government is created (among other reasons) to regulate commerce..........not be run by it. JMJ

    #1.2 - Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:04 PM EDT
    Reply

    Let's call it what it is...yea America, keep assassinating world leaders to steal and secure oil. If anyone is a greedy terrorist it's el Conquistador Americana. This country will pay for it's crime against humanity. It's just unfortunate that innocent people will have to suffer as well.

    • 5 votes
    Reply#2 - Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:16 PM EDT
    Reply

    Armand Hammer (Occidental Petroleum) & the Bank of England ergo the Roth family bankers, controlled the oil in Libya untill Colonel Gadhafi ousted them & gave the oil back to the people. Only problem was it was a tough sell on the open market thanks to the boycotts, embargo's brought about by them after their ousting. Also millions were seized in Geneva belonging to the State of Libya.

    It's not about freedom & Democracy but power, money, oil, greed & the people who like to control it for themselves the most. Liars & cheats.

    • 5 votes
    Reply#3 - Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:33 PM EDT

    PaulG:

    Gadhafi nationalized almost all foreign oil holdings. Because of Armand Hammer's diplomacy and shrewd bargaining, Gadhafi did not nationalize all of Occidental Petroleum resources. Nevertheless, Gadhafi kept the vast oil revenue for himself rather than distribute to the Libyans.

    Libyan crude seldom "was a tough sell on the open market" given the Middle East middlemen's penchant for wheeling-and-dealing in the black market. A tanker load of Libyan crude priced just several dollars below spot-market prices means several million dollars in profit. War or peace, the oil black market thrives. Even OPEC can't control it. Contrary to fiction from experts about boycotts and embargo against Libya, Libyan crude never went begging.

    • 1 vote
    #3.1 - Fri Oct 21, 2011 5:06 AM EDT

    Armand Hammer (Occidental Petroleum) & the Bank of England ergo the Roth family bankers, controlled the oil in Libya untill Colonel Gadhafi ousted them & gave the oil back to the people

    The revenues from Libyan oil was never given back to the people of Libya. They just kept lining Gadhafi, his familes and his army's pocket$.

    The goal of this Civil War was to oust a "Murdering Brutal Dictator" and give the people of Libya a chance at Democracy. They have accomplished the first half of their march towards freedom.

    Now comes the hard part, building a Democracy.

    • 2 votes
    #3.2 - Fri Oct 21, 2011 6:28 AM EDT

    FatCatGets$700Bil, & Michael2424,

    Who do you think will control the oil now...Occidental Petroleum & The Bank of England? They'll certainly have their hands in it I'm sure & that's what it's about. Not freedom & Democracy but power, money, oil, greed & the people who like to control it for themselves the most. Liars & cheats.

    • 1 vote
    #3.3 - Fri Oct 21, 2011 3:58 PM EDT
    Reply

    Got oil? Here's a missile for you.

    That's all NATO was interested.

    • 1 vote
    Reply#4 - Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:40 PM EDT

    A country was sent into civil war, people killed, lives destroyed, all so we can have some f***ing oil!

    • 1 vote
    Reply#5 - Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:42 PM EDT

    Oh yippee yea! Now the prices gasoline will start heading downward, right? Wrong! People are being raped at the pump daily with no end in sight.

    • 2 votes
    Reply#6 - Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:01 PM EDT

    The US should enter into a single source agreement with it's greatest ally and friend to the north.

    Why support anyone else?

    • 1 vote
    Reply#7 - Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:34 AM EDT

    Kill, baby, kill!

      Reply#8 - Sat Oct 22, 2011 1:28 AM EDT

      So, what does this mean in terms of fuel prices ? If you recall, BIG OIL jacked up oil prices substantially and immediately, based on fighting in Libya and gas went up.

      Now the dictator is gone, what about fuel prices; should they not go down NOW ! JMJ

        Reply#9 - Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:52 PM EDT
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