Sales of new homes this year could hit the lowest levels in the nearly 50 years the government has been tracking the data.
New-home sales fell 2.3 percent in August to an annual rate of 295,000 units, the government said Monday.
Based on the trend for the first eight months of the year, sales this year are on track for about 302,000 units, which would be even lower than last year's record-low 321,000, said Patrick Newport, economist for IHS Global Insight. The government has been tracking the data since 1963. (Nearly 1.3 million units were sold in the peak year of 2005.)
"With the economy and job growth weak, there is no good reason to expect a pickup in sales any time soon," he said in a note.
The only good news, if you can call it that, is that after years of crummy housing environment, builders have finally thrown in the towel and brought construction of new homes to a near halt.
The result is that there are only 162,000 housing units for sale, also a record low.
"When the housing market turns, an inventory swing will give housing starts an extra boost, just as inventory swings boost output in other industries," Newport said.
Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors points out that builders of new homes face immense competition from an oversupply of existing homes on the market, specifically "distressed" homes that are in or near foreclosure.
That is one reason prices of new homes are tumbling. Homes priced below $200,000 accounted for 47 percent of sales last month, up from 38 percent in July, a note from Wells Fargo pointed out.
"The new home market is in the dumps and there is little reason to think it can right itself anytime soon," Naroff said in a note.
The problems are "huge," he added and listed some:
- Distressed homes sell at rock-bottom prices
- Households with no home equity, unable to move
- Appraisals that are difficult because the only comparable sales are distressed
- Banks unwilling to lend
"Since it is doubtful the overhang of distressed houses will be alleviated anytime soon and housing construction will not soar until that happens, we need to get used to what the economy is capable of and that, unfortunately, is only moderate growth," Naroff said.
CNBC’s Diana Olick has more on this topic:
CNBC's Diana Olick talks about the drop in new home sales, a rise in inventory, and the numbers from the short-sale market.


And it took a rocket scientist to figure this out?
The general economy of the US is in the tank.. Main Street is NOT/NOT Wall Street. Main street is struggling and Wall Street is continuing on it's irrational gambling binge hoping Uncle Sam will come to the rescue.
Are there actually contractors out there stupid enough to build new single family homes in this economic environment? I mean, even the formally stupid buyers are ignoring new homes for the huge bargains available on existing ones.
Bush gave $2 trillion to the banks with the instruction to use it to fix mortgages. The banks kept the cash and handed it to the executives in the form of big bonuses.
Get a grip on the facts. The TARP loans to banks amounted to around $250 billion. That money was returned by the big banks with interest over two years ago. The U.S. Treasury made a nice profit on that $250 billion of TARP loans.
Peter... to a point true.. however, they used Treasury dollars through Fannie and Freddie to buy the Toxic Assets that the banks held..
so basically, we took the "bad" assets from the banks with the money in our right pocket and put the bad assets in our left. We're still on the hook for the trash.
No duh, PEOPLE this is not the fault of any past or current president. The truth is that we don't NEED any more houses. The baby boomers, the biggest part of our population, are retiring and downsizing, and starting to die off. People have fewer kids, so there are less people to buy new homes. This is a good thing as far as saving the earth and our resources, and not overpopulating the earth. New home building companies, find a new line of work -- home remodelling should do OK, as younger people don't like linoleum and wood panelling.
Isn't it funny how Americans can no longer purchase incandescent light bulbs and how they are being forced to subsidize green cars and green energy, yet at the same time being told that they need to buy houses instead of renting far, far, more efficient and far, far "greener" apartments?
Amazing how property tax revenue influences just what aspects Americans should be green about.(no doubt the property taxes of 100 seperate houses is far more than a 100 unit building)
Well put, Lisa. This, and the fact that educated and skilled people, in what should be their peak earning years, are facing a few years of unemployment, under-employment, and stagnant or declining wages/salaries. Then there are the student loans. No wonder they are not buying houses. I do not think a new home can be found for under $100,000 either.
Also, there are lots of household consolidating in order to pay for rents and mortgages. So you have more multi-generation households requiring less housing in total. Also, we're not that attractive to immigrants with no jobs, so a lot of them either leave or never come to begin with.
pewsocialtrends.org/2010/03/18/the-return-of-the-multi-generational-family-household/
www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129578179
Recovery Summer II. We won't survive another recovery summer with Obama in the White House.
If you get your savior, Rick Perry, in office, the country will burn to the ground while he prays for rain.
Another fine piece of reporting from Captain Obvious.
welcome to Pottersville, USA compliments of Obama
And no George Bailey around to save the day>
Ya that must be it. Old people die and young people are born. Throw in 30 million illegals and look up the population of the US before you make really stupid statements.
Every generation millions of new homes and apartments are built. People die but the homes stay. Of course, there will be some new home construction, but the new home market will never "recover."
But maybe I should jump on the bandwagon and blame the democrats and/or republicans for everything.
I am sitting here waiting for this miraculous recovery to happen. Then I will have a terrific high paying job virtually overnight, a home with more room then anyone could ever need, a new Mercedes, eating at the Ritz for every meal and never have to lift a finger again. Americans had better get used to our new reality......recoveries as in the past are OVER. What will YOU do when the handouts come to an end?
Facts: According to the Census, the "Nation's population is projected to increase to 392 million by 2050" up from 308 million in 2010. That's 2.1 million people PER YEAR on average for the next 40 years. In 2010, we will build roughly 300,000 homes to keep up with that pace. The amount of new housing has been declining every year since 2008. There will be a violent shortage of housing at this pace in the next two to three years. Lack of supply will cause quick price adjustments upward. Since there has been very few lots developed in the past 5-6 years (and generally it takes 2-3 years for lots to come online), the supply will be constricted even more. You can finance a house for 30 years for 4.25% if you qualify. Either qualify and reap the rewards or don't bitch later when you have to pay much more for a home at a much higher interest rate.
According the the Census our population is growing more slowly than at any time in our history. Many of that additional population in 2050 will be seniors, and it is not likely they will be driving the housing market.
Seniors are a large portion of the buying population, at all times. They generally trade their "family" houses for something smaller. There's a reason why there's a boom of constructing "age-restricted" dwellings. Your logic doesn't make sense.
Then where is the demand for those "family" houses going to come from?
The population is growing by 2 million a year. If their parents move into smaller housing, those people are going to have to move out of the basement sooner or later.
Why are we still building new homes when old homes lie empty?
A half million buildings burn to the ground every year. Why are we buying new cars? It's because they get old and fall down or become undesirable. If nothing new was built, we would all live in 1950s ranch houses now.
What's wrong with a 1950s ranch house? The upkeep is little different from that of a new construction home. Sure, I might need a new roof, but so will your newly constructed house eventually. Unless you think we should just throw away houses when they need a little maintenance just like we do nearly everything else. Cars are consumable. There are moving parts that will eventually wear out no matter how much upkeep you put into them. Houses don't suffer this fate. Basic maintenance keeps them livable for decades and generally for a much lower out of pocket cost than new construction. We build new because of vanity, not because of a lack of available quality older homes.
Old houses generally feature some or all of the following items: asbestos, mold, rot, 8ft ceilings, small bathrooms, small kitchens, etc., etc. It's the same logic why we don't drive 55 Chevy's still. Don't get me wrong, I like old houses (mine was built in the 1800s), but if you're going to buy an old house it better have good bones. The 50s ranchers were generally for GIs returning from the war and very small.
Old homes can be remodeled. They can be 99% torn down and rebuilt and that is not officially "new" construction.
Again, I say it's vanity, not necessity. I live in a 1954 ranch. Yes, it's just over 900 sq feet so by no means a palace, but it's ENOUGH for our household of 2 +cats. Yes, my kitchen is small but we remodeled for under $5000, more than doubled my cabinet & counter space, have a dishwasher, stove, fridge with ice & water in the door, a large collection of kitchen gadgets because I love 'em, everything I really NEED and then some. Bathroom's quite roomy, all things considered. more than twice the size of the one in the house I grew up in. A tub, a sink and a toilet. What more does a bathroom need? 2 reasonable sized bedrooms. Partially finished basement including my sewing room, a large laundry room, a workshop area and plenty of storage. Its solidly built and comes with the added bonus of a very reasonable mortgage payment that can easily be afforded if one of us was to lose our job. This is exactly where the construction boom went off course- people built a whole lot more than they needed and that came with a mortgage payment they couldn't afford with the slightest hiccup. Never mind that many of the rooms in the McMansions echo from the lack of furniture because no one could afford that, they were happy to have multiple huge bathrooms with whirlpool tubs and $3000 showers they can brag to their friends about but never use even if they could afford the water bills that would result. We somehow convinced ourselves en mass that we needed more space and for what?
BoA, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Lenders are holding on to huge excess inventory. They will have no choice to to release them. It is a matter of time. Unemployment in California hitting above 12% and uncounted long term unemployments.
No Job. No Money. No Honey. No Houses.
A majority of that paper went to FHA, Freddie, and Fannie during the tax credit so while the big banks get paid to service the paper, they actually own very little of it. I'm in the business. The tax payer bit the bullet on this one. The banks are actually making money hand over fist right now contracry to what you are hearing in the media. Watch and see. You think Buffett made a 2 billion dollar play on bank of america without carefully analyzing numbers and holdings. Why do you think the guy has so much money. It ain't because he gives to the poor.
Vote the Kensian economics major back into office and you ain't seen nothing yet. Vote Reid back in again, Pelosi, Dodd, Frank. And when you do, make sure to keep blaming Bush... see where that get's ya.
F-ing idiot. That's the attitude that got us into this mess. Clinton then Bush deregulated financial markets to the point where we are in this mess. It has nothing to do with Obama. Housing started dropping in 2005 and blew up in 2008. Bush was squarely in charge of that. The US wounds are self-inflicted and blaming a successful suicide victim usually falls on deaf ears.
Good thing the large builders build houses as crappy as they can. Most houses and neighborhoods for that matter are built to squeek by the ten year warranty period. Get yourself a good defect attorney while the big builders are still in business and get out! Houses will be forced to really improve coming out of this due to the huge supply of poorly built energy-inefficient crap they diluted the market with. Hope you're a buyer and not a seller!
That's going to require pulling a permit. Technically, it would be "new" construction.
The borrower and the lender need to do the calculation to see how long it will take for the effect of the lower interest rate to make up for the cost of the refinance, read more about refinancing your home at "123 Refis"
This new home sales story completely misses the point of the August release. It does a disservice to all of us by pretending that the U.S. population has not changed since 1963, when it was 177 million strong. There are now 312 million of us. How can you compare purchases by 312 million to 177 million wihtout adjusting for population growth.?
This is what responsible reporting on this topic looks like:
When you have had your mortgage for a long time, it is not a good idea to Refinance, let me stress again, DONOT refinance if you have your mortgage for long time, to avoid mistakes, use "123 Refi" articles.
Well at list we avoided the catastrophe of 1929.
Aram Arakelyan
Your LA Broker For Life!
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